Dec
30th: Saddam farewell at our
homepage.
Dec
21st: As the holidays approach i've still got
lotsa boxes from West Vancouver to unpack and sort and
file. Since the Election almost every day has been
like Christmas as gradually i see all my old stuff
again. And i've taken much time to catch up on
updating many graphics at my Climate and Energy venues
at the TrendLines website. Some of our
international TrendLiners (88 nations currently) have
waited patiently for 24 months for a few of their
favourite graphs. I gotta make peace over there
and spruce the place up before the rumours of a Spring
Federal Election come to fruition and TrendLines Federal
Ridings Projections become the center of attention
again. Lots to do.
Deputy Minister Gordon McDevitt
and Denis Gauthier,
Director of Education
have joined Dennis Fentie and Peter Carr in their quest
to quiet the TrendLines Blog. They are worth
adversaries and with renewed vigour after some holidays,
i'll enjoy entrusting to TrendLiners the scrutiny and
some enlightenment of these new disciples to the Premier
in the coming mandate.
Alas we must start Winter
today with a smile. As Topaz and i head into the
Yukon bush with my swede saw, this gem come to mind...
the
Christmas Tree Angel Tradition...
When four of
Santa's elves got sick, and the trainee
elves did not produce the toys as fast
as the regular ones, Santa was beginning
to feel the pressure of being behind
schedule.
Then Mrs. Claus told Santa that her Mom
was coming to visit. This stressed
Santa even more.
When he went to harness the reindeer, he
found that three of them were about to
give birth and two had jumped the fence
and were out, heaven knows where. More
stress.
Then when he began to load the sleigh
one of the boards cracked, and the toy
bag fell to the ground and scattered the
toys.
So, frustrated, Santa went into the
house for a cup of apple cider and a
shot of rum. When he went to the
cupboard, he discovered that the elves
had hidden the liquor, and there was
nothing to drink. In his frustration, he
accidentally dropped the cider pot, and
it broke into hundreds of little pieces
all over the kitchen floor.
He went to get the broom and found that
mice had eaten the
straw end of the broom.
Just then the doorbell rang, and
irritable Santa trudged to the door. He
opened the door, and there was a little
angel with a great big Christmas tree.
The angel said, very cheerfully, "Merry
Christmas, Santa. Isn't it a lovely day?
I have a beautiful tree for you. Where
would you like me to stick it?"
And so began the tradition of the little
angel on top of
the Christmas tree.
MERRY CHRISTMAS AND BEST WISHES FOR THE
NEW YEAR
|
Dec
20th: In a pre-Christmas bombshell, everyone
in W~h and across the Yukon is asking
"Who is Sheila Clark?"
And when does
inappropriate sexual misconduct
by a person in authority cross the line to becoming
a legitimate love affair?
That query may be the subject of a Grievance Hearing
between concerned Cabinet Office co-workers, the Premier
and the YTG Union. Sheila Clark is the infamous
female worker in the Cabinet Office that has been at the
center of gossip and rumour for many months. First
brought to TrendLines attention by
Liberal MLA Gary McRobb,
whispers about
Sheila Clark's alleged affair with Premier Dennis Fentie
unquietly grew in tandem with Fentie's misfortunes and
plummeting popularity in the Yukon.
Sheila Clark's mark and influence on Yukon politics is
said to go back as far as the outrageous
"i'm oudda here" CBC interview
involving Premier Dennis Fentie. Several female
Cabinet Office staff have made an exit from the
disturbing environment.
It raises another moral question or two. When do
advances by a supervisor become "ok". And when
does the private life a Premier become unprivate?
Most pundits would agree that the day that such conduct
unbecoming affects the routine of running the Territory
would be a factor. Another consideration would be
the realization that a Premier involved in infidelity on
top of other past indiscretions is no longer of the good
and moral character that warrants role modeling for
Yukon youth.
Other questions are bound to surface in the course and
duration of the second mandate. Were advancements
based on merit or ... ? And what of his scorned
"tulip"?
TrendLines 2007.
Stay tuned, eh ...
Dec
6th: A note wrt the disappointment by some in
my lack of "attack mode" postings these past weeks.
During the Election, we saw a genuine outreach from
present and prospective MLA's that expressed a desire to
raise the decorum and spirit of co-operation at the
Leg'. Some were elected. Some were
re-elected. I want to give this process a chance
to develop and while the first few Sitting days have not
gone well, patience is bountiful. But it is quite
hard. We are sitting on stories of despicable
Election irregularities by the Liberals (Arthur, u
should give me a call, eh); juicy YP gossip with
names and pic's; and Peter Carr's aspirations in
Houston.
Our Blogster network and its Media
following also awaits the disposition of Evalina's politically
motivated firing by Yukon Education and its
Deputy Minister Gordon McDevitt
and Denis Gauthier,
Director of Education.
She was fired the day after she announced
her intent to act as Campaign Mgr & Official Agent in the recent
Election, dashing any chance of Yukon Party Kluane hopeful Jim
Bowers joining Caucus. Sept 14th. It was intimidation
and financial vigilantism of the highest order. Despite a
Union Grievance process that allows reinstatement or settlement via
a Hearing and Decision within 21 days, she is approaching the 90 day
threshold. It is up to Dennis Fentie whether this site and the
Leg' continue as vehicles of vengeful retaliations or partners in
moving the Territory forward. Does Premier Dennis Fentie want
to see blogs with constructive criticism and sharing of information
... or pictures of his recent office love interest.
Coming from Poland, Evalina hasn't
learned about
kangaroo courts.
She was naive to the fact that her Department Hearing was presided
over by the Richard
Godson, President of the NDP Riding Association
and she was represented at the Union Hearing by
Candidate Jim Bowers'
nephew, Mark Bowers
... delegated to this highly sensitive incident with only three
weeks on the job (and a past political candidate himself).
This was
guilt-by-association
and everyone in the Territory knows it.
It is no secret that the TrendLines
server hits go wild when the dirt flies. But as a stat and
graph guy, it is not my preferred 2007 theme. It is time for
Dennis Fentie, Gord McDevitt
& Denis Gauthier to
do the right thing ... or face the wrath before and during the
wrongful dismissal
action. It will
not be pretty. The environment that these three gentlemen work
in for the next five year mandate is in their own hands. This
is not a threat. It is a "pledge" that will be applied with
unrelenting and extreme vigour!!
We will know shortly if the Premier
and his YP was humbled in the Election by what they heard and saw in
the trenches and Media ... or whether Dennis Fentie remains just a
street kid in a suit...
 Dec
5th: Prior to commencing Question Period,
MLA's often voice support for National or International
Days of Recognition. Today was Int'l Volunteerism
Day and several MLA's gave Tributes. IMHO,
the Yukon is the poster child for "I'm too fricken
lazy to be a fricken Volunteer Day".
In most jurisdictions, we see folks rally to serve as
committee members and officers of clubs, associations,
non-profits & NGO's. Here in the Yukon however, we
spend donation monies and what should be program
spending monies on paid secretaries, paid treasurers,
paid executive directors, paid travel, meals for
Directors, unproductive office space, seldom used
equipment and furnishings, etc etc. Wording for a
club, association, non-profit or NGO in the Yukon has
become white welfare. Fluff jobs. Often it
is not transparent and it is not accountable and stories
abound of the funds rip-offs/misappropriations and
recourse legal suits. For the most part,
volunteerism is dead in our Territory.
SHAME on many Yukoners.
Volunteerism is life blood of many communities on the
Outside. Not here. And Yukon kids and young
adults see what is going on...
I am finding that many Yukoners are
not well travelled; especially First Nations. Living
exclusively in a grant driven environment, the easy money, has much
to do with Yukoners lack of work ethic, lack of cognizance of
tourists expectations for level of service and lack of exposure to
true volunteerism. There is a reason tourists race thru the
Territory as fast as they can. The W~h Chamber of Commerce is
making an effort to get instil awareness of the problem here.
Admitting the prob is step one folks.
 Dec
2nd: An exciting weekend for the Federal Liberals.
The first ballot saw Ignatieff leading followed by Rae,
Dion, Kennedy, Dryden, Brison, Volpe & Findlay.
Findlay joined Dion's camp while Brison & Volpe crossed
to Rae. The second ballot had Ignatieff still
leading followed by Rae, Dion, Kennedy & Dryden.
Dryden joined Rae's camp and in an expected move,
Kennedy brought his massive support to Dion.
Technically, Dion & Kennedy would have more delegates
than the two leading candidates. And that's what
the third ballot revealed: Dion in the lead
followed by Ignatieff and Rae. Rae was dropped
from the ballot but he didn't throw his support to
either of the two in the run-off. Dion won with a
55-45 margin. All five continuing candidates
gained votes in successive ballots. The closing of
the convention was marked by a making of peace of sorts
via emotional tributes by ex-PM's John Turner, Jean
Chrétien & Paul Martin.
Stéphane Dion is not popular in Quebec and is not a
favourite son of Liberal organizers there. He is
not well known in the West. Ontario knows him as
the Environment Minister that held the tiller while
Canada's greenhouse gas emissions rose 24% while
defending the Kyoto Protocol. He inherited a
failed Liberal voluntary guidelines program that made
Canada liable for $7-Billion in carbon credits payable
to Russia. This is the Stéphane Dion with whom PM
Stephen Harper consulted last month to design the
infamous "Quebecois are a Nation" resolution. Both
men were authors of the Quebec-inspired "Clarity Act".
It would be easy for
either Party to trigger a Federal Election around the
Spring Budget. With the Conservatives and Liberals
presently low in the polls, don't plan your holidays
around it just yet !!
 Nov
30th: Question Period has reverted to status quo.
Eric Fairclough catches Fentie in a lie about the
guerrilla outfitters. Yesterday the Premier said
he couldn't comment due to a YTG legal action and due
process. Fairclough found this morn that no such
action has been registered at the courthouse!
Oops.
Fentie says most
of the questions this session are "meaningless" ... and
i tend to agree. Boring. And the attempt at
renewed decorum has quickly failed and reverted to the
circus.
Gallery trips are futile
and i'm
filling in the
gaps and coping with -44 temp's in the Junction with a 50-yr
family tradition - but mine has lotsa moose meat mixed
in!!
Nov 24th:
The Federal Gov't has presented an Economic and Fiscal
Update called "Advantage
Canada". The thrust of the Statement is to pay
down Canada's Federal Debt to the extent
that the National & Provincial Debt will equal the
trust fund covering the Canada/Quebec Pension Funds in
2021. This is an IMF/OECD measure
called Net Debt. In 2021, the trust fund will
equal the Fed/Prov Debt if we have $57-Billion in
accumulated Surplus Budgets by that time. The
framework highlights incl:
- Targeted Federal tax
cuts of $22-Bil over next 6 years (incl reduction of GST
to 5% by 2011) not incl previously announced Seniors tax
splitting.
- 2006/2007 Surplus
estimated at $4.2-Bil & Accumulated Surplus of $19-Bil
over next 6 years
- Min of $3-Bil reduction
of Nat'l Debt targeted annually ($13.2-Bil was paid off
in 2006 due to unexpected third largest Surplus in Cndn
history. The present balance of $481-Bil is $81-Bil
less than the peak in 1997)
- Expected Real GDP growth
of 2.75% for next two years
- The Federal Gov't & the
Bank of Canada are renewing Canada's Inflation target of
2% for a further five years within a cushion range of
1-3%.
- Corp tax rate may be
lowest in G7 by 2011 at 18.5%
Also yesterday, the
Federal Gov't announced proposed legislation that
endeavours to
prohibit bail to
anyone committing a crime whilst possessing a firearm.
The Bloc Quebecois (taking
their lead from the Quebec Liberal Party Convention and
Liberal leadership hopeful, Michael Ignatief) have
introduced a private member's bill which seeks the
Federal Govt's "recognition of Quebec as a Nation,
currently within Canada." Stephen Harper has
proposed his own recognition proclamation and has issued
the following Statement:
|
STATEMENT BY THE PRIME
MINISTER TO THE HOUSE OF COMMONS
November 23, 2006
Ottawa, Ontario
Prime Minister Stephen Harper today issued
the following statement to the House of
Commons concerning the motion tabled in
respect of Quebec as a nation:
"That this House recognize that the
Québécois form a nation within a united
Canada."
Mr. Speaker,
The true intention of the Bloc leader and
the sovereignist camp is perfectly clear.
It is not to recognize what the Québécois
are, but what the sovereignists would like
them to be.
For the Bloc, this is not about Quebec as a
nation; the National Assembly has already
pronounced on that. This is about
separation.
To them, nation means separation.
We saw his true intentions on October 27,
when he said: “…the NDP has recognized for
decades that Quebec forms a nation, yet
every time there is a referendum, they act
contrary to the positions they’ve taken.”
In other words, if we recognize the
Québécois as a nation, we must vote “yes” in
a referendum on separation.
And the Bloc leader’s attempt to lead the
Québécois, in good faith, to support
separation in spite of themselves reminds us
of his mentor Jacques Parizeau and the
“lobster traps”.
But the Québécois are not fooled by these
clumsy tactics.
The former PQ Premier, Bernard Landry, posed
the following question: “once that
recognition is achieved, you have to know
that you will then be faced with the
following question: Why should the Quebec
nation be content with being the province of
another nation and forgo equality with your
nation and all other nations?”
The answer is clear, because the Québécois
have always played an historic role in
advancing Canada with solidarity, courage
and vision, and building a Quebec that is
confident, self-reliant, united and proud
within a Canada that is strong and united,
independent and free.
When he landed in Québec City, Champlain did
not say, “This isn’t going to work: it’s too
far, it’s too cold, it’s too difficult.” No.
Champlain and his companions worked hard
because they believed in what they were
doing, because they wanted to preserve their
values, because they wanted to build a
long-lasting, secure country.
And that is exactly what happened almost 400
years ago: the founding of the Canadian
state.
Mr. Speaker, the Québécois know who they
are.
They know they have contributed to Canada’s
founding, development and greatness.
They know they have preserved their unique
language and culture and promoted their
values and interests within Canada.
The question is a straightforward one: do
the Québécois form a nation within a united
Canada? The answer is yes.
Do the Québécois form a nation independent
from Canada? The answer is no, and it will
always be no.
All throughout their history, the Québécois
have always recognized the prophets of doom
and the true guides of their destiny.
Because the Québécois since Cartier and
Laurier to Mulroney and Trudeau have led
this country, and millions like them have
helped to build it.
And with their English- and French-speaking
fellow citizens and people of all
nationalities from around the world, they
made this country what it is: the greatest
country on Earth, a shining example in a
dangerous and divided world of the harmony
and unity that all peoples have the capacity
to achieve.
And we will do what we must, what our
forefathers and foremothers have always
done, and that is to preserve this country—a
strong, united, independent and free Canada. |
Nov 23rd:
In this afternoon's Throne Speech, the Fentie Gov't pats
itself on the back for the growing graduation rate for
Yukoners. Dennis and the boys haven't got a clue.
Now remember, this is The Yukon. Here,
"Graduation" refers to Grade 12 ... not College or
University. The rest of Canada has not applauded
its high school grads for five decades, but the practice
is widespread in Yukon communities, being at the bottom
of the national food chain.
It is timely and
incredible for Fentie to highlight this tragedy.
Just yesterday, CBC's Nancy Thomson had guest Melanie
Barrett reveal to us that of the Yukon's 99 First
Nations "graduates", only 19 of 'em passed the
College/University entrance exams. What does that
tell ya? A tragedy. A tragedy that
underscores the Fraser Institute's report that Yukon
high school students have among the lowest scores in the
country. And yet Yukon Education allows our kids
to have the shortest number of attendance days in
Canada. And its teachers have only three
Professional Days whilst the norm is ten. The
Yukon Party has been in office for four years.
There is no one else to blame for this travesty.
Also on CBC, Phil Fontaine
took glee in assessing an "F" grade on the Conservative
Govt's programs in 2006. As Assembly of FN chief,
he should take a long hard look at his own people before
embarrassing himself. Many FN (incl Yukon) wish to
setup their own schools. On CHON-FM last year, we
heard Yukon Education's Asst Director of Education admit
to Chuck Hendrie that in reality we have two streams in
the Yukon and it is the averaging of both of these that
gave us the low scores. He implied that if FN's
were not included, all would seem well. Ok, that
may be true in W~h, but most of the schools in the
communities could not afford two independent systems (FN
& "the others"). Altho, anecdotally, many parents
have placed their kids in French immersion classes to
avoid the mix. And many other parents express
openly that they would be elated to see these two
streams formally separated.
Can u Imagine
Tomorrow?!!
|
As
background, here is an excerpt from my
infamous June 19th Carcross Murder Trial
blog:
Personally i
believe this is partially related to low
literacy among FN and hence my recent
criticism of those pushing FN students thru
high school with a blind eye to measurement
norms. To that end, we have secured
the OECD's
Int'l Literacy and Skills Survey which
is oft quoted by Education Minister John
Edzerza. While he likes to claim that
Yukon is highest of all Canada's
jurisdictions in that massive study, again
we see evidence of the recent Yukon
Education Dept acknowledgement that we have
"two streams" in Territory schools.
Officials were at the time explaining the
second Fraser Institute High School
Standings Report that showed the Yukon's
abysmal results. Drilling down and
adjusting for population, it is revealed
that while 71% of non-FN Yukoners (over 16
yrs old) had a passing grade (of Level 3-5),
only 49% of Yukon FN passed the same prose
literacy test. |
Dennis Fentie asks us
to
Imagine
Tomorrow
about 13 times in the Throne Speech. This
calls to mind that he has one or two Grievance
Hearing results to announce outcomes on this week.
One for Evalina, fired from the Yukon Education Dept
'cuz this Blog is syndicated to one of her websites,
www.theYukon.tv
& of course we are all awaiting the disposition of
SignGate,
the alleged Complaint and Grievance by both
co-workers and a Cabinet Office administrator
involving alleged inappropriate sexual activity by
the Premier. It further addresses alleged
subsequent special treatment and advancement of
Dennis Fentie's recent love interest and caused a
furore within the Cabinet Offices. That
situation is also said to have precipitated Dennis
Fentie's early Election call in September after
indicating to Todd Hardy that the Election call
would accommodate his emergency medivac and cancer
treatment in Vancouver. Oops.
Blogsters across Canada and their media followings
are awaiting the disposition of these two
developments: Will Evalina Zamana be
reinstated by the Deputy Minister of Education in
what was clearly an unlawful dismissal that was
politically motivated? It is true that Dennis
Fentie's love interest has been given another
promotion?
Nov 8th Update:
There will be a Federal Economic Statement (mini budget)
on Nov 23rd.
Nov 8th:
The Yukon Speech from the Throne will be part of an
Autumn Sitting (12-day version) commencing Nov 23rd 'til
Dec 13th.
Nov 5th:
Thanx to Elaine Kennedy for this snippet from the
anonymous Blog "I'm not Paranoid"...
A
Primer and Quiz for Left Wing Nutbars
How does the
left-wing mind work? Or, maybe a
better question is - Why is it that
the left-wing mind doesn’t work?
Some people think that left-wingdom
is a pathology; A mental illness
that prevents the brain from
processing information correctly; A
psychological disorder that causes
the unfortunate sufferer to have
crippling episodes of self loathing,
wild attacks of delusional naïveté
and an irrepressible need to embrace
anything and everything destructive
and corrosive to their civilization.
Maybe it’s no accident that the
poor, unfortunate individuals who
exhibit these monstrously disabling
symptoms are called leftists. After
all, it’s the left hemisphere of the
brain that controls our ability to
think logically. And, as we all
know, left wingers are about as good
with logic as Bill Clinton is at
being faithful to his wife. That is
to say, not very. Maybe that’s why
they all love Slick Willie – he
reminds them of themselves, nasty
stains and all.
To be a left wing-dinger is to have
completely and utterly divorced
yourself from the real world in
which you live – to inhabit some
sort of mythical dream world where
Iranian society is the moral
equivalent to Canadian society and
America the very embodiment of
Satan.
Cultural relativism and
Anti-Americanism, you see, are the
main cornerstones of the left-wing
psychology (or should I say the
left-wing psychosis).
Just test any lefty you know. Say
something like – “You know, America
has got to be the most culturally
influential nation that has ever
existed. Its awesome presence is
everywhere around the world – books,
movies, music, TV, Coca cola….”
Then, stand back and watch the
lefty’s head explode. Or, maybe
mention that we sure are lucky to be
living in Canada, a nation founded
by Christians, rather than one of
those Muslim nations. Then, run
away, quickly, before the
bulging-eyed lefty throttles you
while screaming insanely about the
Crusades and pedophile priests.
Maybe you know people like that.
Maybe you know people who are
teetering on the edge of left wing
insanity. If so, toss ‘em this
handy-dandy leftwing Primer. It’s
all they’ll ever need to know about
being a lefty. And then some. Here
we go.
Dear lefty person:
(Ah-ha, there’s your first lesson.
Notice the salutation isn’t Dear
‘Mr. Something’ or, Dear ‘Ms.
Something’? That’s a big no-no in
lefty-land. And don’t even think
about calling someone ‘Mrs’. That’s
grounds for murder in some leftist
circles. To be a good lefty, one
must never ever differentiate
between the sexes. Never say Foreman
or Tradesman. It’s ‘Foreperson’ and
‘Tradesperson’. Also, note these
helpful terms for future reference:
‘Personhole Cover’, ‘Personager’
(that’s an office boss type person);
‘Personure’ (that’s gender-neutral
cow droppings), Huperson (Like in
‘Huperson Beings’ or the ‘Huperson
Race’). And so on. Make up your own.
Have hours of safe, non-biased
gender-neutral family fun. Your kids
will love it.)
Anyway, Here’s today’s lesson:
To be out in Left-field, you must
never ever criticize any culture or
ethnic group except white
Christians. And you must loudly and
aggressively stand up against anyone
who dares suggest that western
societies are in any way better than
those in Africa or the Middle East.
Whenever anyone dares show pride in
their White Christian heritage, you
must quickly come back with a
scathing comment referring to
slavery, colonialism or capitalist
imperialism (whatever that means).
If anyone dares to mention Muslims
in the middle east castrating their
daughters and decapitating people
for converting to Christianity, you
must snarl back that American
foreign policy is the real cause of
everything bad in the Middle east.
However, should anyone expresses
pride in being something other than
white, Christian, Hetero or English,
you must smile widely, show your
appreciation and support, and never
say anything negative in response.
After all, hasn't the person been
victimized enough by evil White,
Hetero, Christian men already,
without rubbing salt in the wound?
To be a Left-over, you must have the
childlike stupidity (ooops, I mean
innocence) to believe that humans
have the capacity to live together
in harmony and create a world where
everyone is treated equally and no
one has more than anyone else. To
believe this, you must believe that
our natural individuality,
indomitable spirit and healthy egos
can somehow be tamed or enslaved.
Or, maybe, you’re not stupid at all.
Maybe you are just pretending to be,
so people will not suspect the true
nature of your shrivelled, vile
soul. Maybe you are actually like
99% of all lefties out there who,
somewhere deep inside, know the
truth – that humans will never be
equal and the smart and strong will
always want more and get more than
the stupid and weak unless they are
taken down a peg or two. And, you so
want to be part of the group that
does the taking down, don’t you?
Sure you do. All Left-overs do, deep
in their conniving black hearts. It
isn’t helping the poor that drives
them as much punishing everyone
else.
Finally, to be a true left winger
you must have this inexplicable
subconscious need to tear down all
the things that your culture was
built on – faith, family,
procreation, national defence,
individual pride, and freedom from
undue state interference. You may
not realize it because you are a
lefty and your brain is addled by
the pathology that grips you, but,
the truth is that, you hate
yourself, your skin and your culture
and what you really want - nay,
crave – is the destruction of your
society.
Do you see yourself in any of this?
Just a little maybe? If you do,
you’re in luck. A team of twenty NDP
experts have developed a short test
that will tell you whether or not
you are a left wing nutjob. And the
best part is – it’s free. So, as my
gift to you, here it is. Get ready
to see the true you revealed. Ready
set…..go.
1. If you believe that society must
provide a permanent free house and
lifetime welfare for everyone, even
sane, able bodied people, while
requiring nothing of them in return,
you are a left wing nutjob.
2. If you believe that the
proliferation of single mothers and
fatherless children in our society
is a perfectly natural development
in our proudly progressive and
enlightened society, you are a left
wing nutjob.
3. If you believe that poverty and
criminality could be eliminated if
only government would spend more
money on social programs, you are a
left wing nutjob
4. If you constantly worry about
poverty even though most welfare
recipients are rather plump, have
DVD players and send their kids to
school in NIKE runners, you are a
left wing nutjob
5. If you believe that, for the most
part, poor people and criminals are
not personally responsible for their
situation and society as a whole
must take ownership for all social
ills, you are a left wing nutjob
6. If you truly believe that radical
Islam is a religion of peace and no
more dangerous than evangelical
Christianity, you are not only a
left wing nutjob, you are a
dangerous delusional moron and an
enemy of freedom and democracy.
7. If you are concerned about gender
inequity, but only notice it when
men perceivably have the advantage
and say nothing when women routinely
cripple men in family court, get a
slap on the wrist after killing
their babies, and serve jail time in
country cottages, you are probably a
left wing nut job. Or maybe you’re
just a run of the mill feminist
hypocrite.
8. If you believe that it’s a matter
of employment equity for females to
join the army to fight big swarthy
men hand to hand on foreign
battlefields but understand why they
cannot compete with men in any
Olympic sport requiring strength,
agility or stamina, then you are
either a left wing nutbar or you’ve
been brainwashed to think like a
mindless feminist peon.
9. If you believe that Canada would
be perfectly alright with no army at
all, you are a mega left-wing nutjob
and should be forcibly conscripted
and sent to Iraq for a year to
shovel out latrines. As a lefty,
you’d be little suited for any other
military role.
10. And finally, if you believe that
borders are an impingement on the
dignity and basic human rights and
freedoms of the citizens of the
world, you are most definitely a,
first class, primo, left wing nutbar.
So, how’d you do? Are you a left
wing nut bar? If so, peace be unto
you. And remember, Jesus loves you.
(Not sure if I believe in Jesus or
not – but boy, does his name ever
rile up the left wingdings. Oddly,
the name of Allah doesn’t seem to
bother them at all.)
|
Nov 4th:
Along with the Kyoto Protocol and Bilingualism, spending
on Aboriginal languages is among the greatest wastes of
Federal taxpayer money. Oh, make that "was".
It seems Ottawa has seen the light. Locally, we
see excellent initiatives in Skagway, Juneau and Haines
for language preservation (in alliance with Univ of
Alaska) and w/o the major federal funding inputs demand
from and agreed to by the former Liberal Gov't.
|
AFN
Chiefs Committee on
Languages shocked at funding
cuts announced by Minister
of Canadian Heritage
OTTAWA, Nov. 2 /CNW Telbec/
- The Assembly of First
Nations' Chiefs Committee on
Languages (CCOL), comprised
of First Nations leaders
from across Canada, learned
today that there will be
significant changes to
Aboriginal Languages
funding.
In today's Conservative
government's written
response to a Question on
the Order Paper by Member of
Parliament Charlie Angus,
Minister of Heritage and
Status of Women Bev Oda
states that monies once set
aside in 2002 for Aboriginal
languages in the amount of
$172.5 million will not be
disbursed as originally
planned and, in fact, is
being removed from the
fiscal framework.
While $12.5 million has been
disbursed to date, the
remaining $160 million
remains outstanding.
Minister Oda affirms that $5
million of new permanent
funding will be allocated to
"Aboriginal languages while
they are considered in the
wider context of the new
government's approach to
meeting the needs of
Aboriginal peoples."
Minister Oda informed CCOL
Chair Chief Bill Cranmer of
her unilateral decision that
the languages funding is
expected to be renewed for
the next ten years at $5-
million per year for a total
of $50 million. This
represents a significant
reduction from the original
$172.5 million originally
set aside.
This unilateral decision
flies in the face of Federal
Government-First Nations
Political Accord. This
decision demonstrates the
lack of good faith on behalf
of Canadian Heritage as the
Chiefs Committee has been in
negotiations with Canadian
Heritage officials on the
rollout of the remaining
$160 million.
The Chiefs Committee want
guarantees that the $160 M
is in fact still on the
table and that the
Department of Canadian
Heritage is willing to work
with the Chiefs Committee to
ensure that the funds are
used to revitalize, preserve
and maintain of First
Nations Languages.
Chief Bill Cranmer indicated
his grave concern for
languages today. "We need to
act on this immediately.
First Nations languages are
dying everyday with the
passing of our elders and
speakers. For government to
delay the funding once again
is not only shameful and
disrespectful but it also
hurts First Nations to the
core of our existence." |
|
|
Nov 3rd:
With failure of Dennis Fentie to call back the Leg' to
this point in time, it is unlikely there will be an
Autumn Sitting w/o the "20 days" running into Christmas
week and ending Dec 21st.
Nov 1st: Union
Grievance Hearing for Evalina with Yukon Education Dept.
Oct 20th:
The Greenies, Liberals & NDP are flapping away again on
the Kyoto Protocol today.
That grand plan that helps the treehuggers "feel good"
by sending a cheque for $7-Billion to Russia. Not
Gov't money, btw, it's taxpayers' money. That plan
is steeped, eh...
Oct 19th:
Last month TrendLines reported that
the
radioactivity scare
in Champagne was politically motivated. While i
provided all residents with current radon info and
remedies, the dark side was up to no good. The
fairy tale of mischievous activity by the US Army in the
40's and Cancer scares were poorly conceived cover-ups
to divert attention from Champagne Aishihik First
Nation's careless dumping in their own back yard (engine
coolant, paint thinner, BHT preservative & prescription
drugs). These revelations are not helpful when one
promotes itself as being stewards of the land.
Subsequent new
testing reveals that our alert that this was simply
natural occurring and easily remedied radon origin has
been validated. Radon is treatable. The
garbage NOT. Like Carmacks' phoney boil-water
advisory in the Spring, this is plainly another
deception to get a free water system from INAC & the
Federal Gov't. CAFN's ex-Communications guru Rose
Kushniruk was front and centre in the staged urgency at
Champagne. Chief James Allen lost his Chiefhood
within days of our disclosure of this misguided plot and
public relations blunder. Perhaps they had help
from the infamous Peter Carr?
Oct 18th:
Hey Garth, i feel your
pain!! The guy puts truth and honesty ahead of
Party. Stay the course, my friend. (click the
Garth Turner video for more)
(Burlington Post graphic)
 Oct
17th: Attending Indian Residential School
Class Action Settlement Hearings in W~h. The
Provincial/Territorial ratification of the Federal
Conservative Govt's $1.9-Billion Agreement will allow
the $8,000 Elder Advance Payment to be supplemented with
a $10,000 Common Experience Package plus $3,000/yr of
attendance at a Residential School. 78,994
survivors and the Estates of the 16,000 deceased (death
after May 30 2005) are eligible. The 12,000-15,000
individual physical/sexual abuse cases are excluded from
this class action procedure. $5k - $430k/person is
available for those cases. Negotiations for legal
fees remain in a range $25-$40-Million. The
religious organizations
(Catholic/Anglican/United/Presbyterian) have contributed
$80-Million (in cash or in-kind healing programs)
towards the settlement fund.
Yukon
Residential Schools include Carcross (Chooulta), Coudert
Hall (Whitehorse Hostel/Student Residence - replaced by
Yukon Hall), Shingle Point (replaced by All Saints,
Aklavik), Whitehorse Baptist Mission & Yukon Hall
(Whitehorse/Protestant Hostel). Most Catholic
families attended at Lower Post in BC. When
ratified, it is the intent that application forms and
assistance will be available at the above website and
local First Nations Admin offices w/o cost to the
survivor or Estate. It should not be necessary to
hire an advocate for submissions. Justice Ron
Veale and the horde of proponent lawyers are doing an
excellent job of explaining options and realities.
It is unfortunate that the Settlement tarnishes the well
run schools; and attendance at some was optional;
but based on the number of potential claimants, it is
estimated that the litigation process for all duly
harmed may have taken 50 years had a class action
solution not been sought. A universal settlement
brings the period down to five years. Info
available at 1-866-879-4913.
|
TrendLines Background/Overview
Aboriginal Groups - Aboriginal people of
Canada is the term used to refer to the
First Nations, Inuit, and Métis
collectively. First Nations is a term of
ethnicity used in Canada that has widely
replaced the use of the word “Indian.” It
refers to Indigenous peoples of North
America located in what is now Canada, and
their descendants, who are not Inuit or
Métis. Both the Canadian Census and Siggner
& Associates research and data refer to the
term “Native American Indian” or “NAI”;
however, for the purpose of this Notice
Plan, the term First Nations will be used in
its place.
Residential Schools - The federal government
began to play a role in the development and
administration of the residential school
system for Aboriginal children as early as
1874. The Government of Canada operated
nearly every school as a “joint venture”
with various religious organizations until
1969, when the federal government assumed
total responsibility for the schools. In
many instances, church organizations
remained actively involved. The schools were
located in every province and territory,
except Newfoundland, New Brunswick, and
Prince Edward Island, although the highest
concentration of schools was in British
Columbia, the Prairies, and the North. Most
of the federally run residential schools
closed by the mid-1970’s, with a small
number remaining open through the 1980’s.
The last federally run residential school in
Canada closed in 1996. Aboriginal children
were often separated from their families and
communities to attend these schools. While
not all children had negative experiences at
these schools, incidents of physical and
sexual abuse have been cited by many former
students. Legal claims also allege breach of
treaty, loss of education opportunity,
forcible confinement and poor conditions at
the schools. In addition, because a key
objective of the residential school system
was the assimilation of Aboriginal children,
legal claims allege that the system
contributed to a loss of language and
culture among Aboriginal people. As a
result, the proposed settlement has been
reached. |
Oct 16th: Both mandatory recounts (for margins of
ten or less) have confirmed the Election Day leads.
Finalized counts show both Inverarity & Edzerza with six
vote margins.
Friday, Oct 13th: A note of gratitude to
TrendLiners.
Over the past 45 days, this Blog page had 10,000 server
hits & over 3,200 visitors ... most first timers!!
Thanx, eh.
Oct 12th: Reflections. The people have
spoken. Many of us may not like some of the
individual results or the new Legislature profile
(10-5-3), but these are the cards that have been dealt.
In the June 2004 Federal Election, the polls at the
midpoint of that Campaign forecast a Conservative Party
majority. You will remember that Stephen Harper
mused about his "transition team". But with seeing
a Party that had only "just" merged (Alliance & PC's), a
wary public came to precipice, pause & reflected; and
said "nope, u guyz aren't ready for governance" and
allowed Paul Martin and his rascals to continue albeit
only with a Minority ... like a leash.
And it retrospect, it was needed. The Gomery
Commission revealed that many high placed Liberals had
an undue sense of "entitlement" and Regime Change was in
the air. But even in the January 2006 Federal
Election, voters pondered the polls showing a
Conservative Majority and backed off. While they
believed a housecleaning was in order, the electorate
was not sufficiently convinced that Stephen Harper's
Conservatives were ready for unbridled governance ...
and were handed a Minority in its stead.
 Now
let's move the calendar of time to Sept 8th in the
Yukon. Writ dropped. As u can see in the
graph below, in September we are forecasting 6 NDP,
5 YP, 4 Liberal & 3 unallocated MLA's. No
clear mandate on the horizon. The 3
unallocated represent the recently state of flux
Ridings of P/C Centre, Pelly-Nisutlin & Mak-Tak.
The NDP are in disarray 'cuz of Leadership issues.
Todd Hardy had a loyalty crisis and lost two MLA's.
Then a personal one resulting in his health
treatment at St Paul's in Vancouver. From
August 2005 to January 2006, the NDP seemed poised
for governance. Minority governance.
Because folks did not see Cabinet material in its
present or potential Caucus. By June their
fortunes had fallen to four potential MLA's and even
before Mr Hardy's medical misfortune, the NDP had
been relegated to the "rebuilding" arena. This
Election was the NDP's to lose. And they did.
Six months ago.
 Next
in line at writ drop was the YP with five potential
MLA's. Many of our Respondents in poll surveys
like the idea of a right wing gov't and the YP ... but
not Dennis Fentie. There is the perception that he
has not completely shed his ok'ness with heroin
trafficking as a part of urban life; including old
friends; and that the Yukon's lack of stomping on
infiltrators is based on a lack of his commitment at the
top. People whisper about his later use of pot,
the Watson Lake smoke buddies and recent abuse of
alcohol. And his quasi-adulterous, Cabinet office
romance. And his inability to keep Cabinet
Ministers from cronyism and self serving conflicts of
interest. And his top down autocratic discipline.
No doubt a survival technique learned when one is
invited to the Federal Penitentiary system for four
years (i luv Gary McRobb's football analogy: went
in a tight end ... came out a wide receiver). In
short, an endorsement of Fentie and the YP would
indicate that many Yukoners have sold their soul as far
as ethics and morals in exchange for the prospect of an
unbroken continuity of paycheques and contracts.
He is far from an ideal role model for our young adults
and children. And finally, as the Economy
improved, the YP was seen as weak on social issues.
There we have it. A year ago, many in the Party
wanted a change of Leadership, but nobody was being
groomed and they were stuck with Dennis Fentie and all
his baggage; the worst being his refusal to better
the Party's and his own' public relations. He and
the Cabinet are seen as aloof and uncaring. But it
is widely known that right wing Parties are the ticket
to prosperity and with a similar sentiment on the
National scene, there is merit in an alliance.
This Election was lost by Fentie a year ago. But
nobody else picked up the ball.
 At
four projected MLA's in September we have the Liberal
Party. Tarnished with corruption charges on the
Federal venue, there is some blowback. In Arthur
Mitchell they have a leader that has held the reins for
a year and a half but is seldom seen or heard. He
wins in the Copperbelt By-Election, a YP stronghold,
likely because constituents see him and the Liberals as
their Plan-B. But as the months go by from
November, he is not openly visiting the communities.
He is not openly attending public events as a featured
speaker. He is not seen openly visiting businesses
for their input into the Yukon's future. And he is
not seen as a budding issues advocate of First Nations'
chiefs or CYFN. That is not to say Mitchell is not
doing some or all of these things. But it
certainly is not being reported. Another public
relations disaster. Thru March to July, the public
watched desperately for Mitchell to show that he had the
smarts to be Premier, or alternatively that he could
assemble a team that had better Cabinet potential the
faltering NDP. He did neither. The clock
towards the inevitable Election was ticking down and few
star candidates came forward. This Election was
the Liberals to lose. And they did. Three
months ago.
So what were the voters to
do? It seems that all three Parties were having
their issues. And all three Parties were obviously
having troubles attracting quality candidates. On
that point, money is an issue. A Yukon MLA get
$29-k. Not worth dumping a good job for. And
good people in the private and civil service sectors
stayed away in droves. There was one alternative.
Let's dump the partisan Party system if we don't have
the critical mass to get enuf good candidates for even
one Party and vote in some Independents. Real
ones. Not the single issue whako's. The
Yukon flirted with that idea and we saw Independent
sentiment rise to 21% in our polls. In 1992, three
Indies were elected with 13% popularity. One was
invited to Cabinet. But alas, for some of the same
money reasons, there were few takers and that move
towards Consensus waned. This Election was the
Indies to lose. And the did. Three months
ago.
That brings us to Oct
10th. The campaign is winding down. Hardy
looks weak and tired. Mitchell fools DataPath and
CBC into believing Regime Change is in the air due to
his finally making an excellent appearance in the
Leaders Forum. But those polls only reflected a
fleeting moment of passion and emotion that was related
to the Debate and Party Leader preference. In the
following hours and days, folks remembered that they
must vote for their local candidate and the realities
that for the most part Mitchell had been weak and his
team was lacking ... set in. And the peak Liberal
sentiment seen in September could not be rekindled.
For one, i am convinced that this Election was
Mitchell's to lose. The Party chose to closet him
in silence thru the Summer and they lost on that
strategy. Seeing status quo as the best
alternative ... for the Yukon and for their own jobs,
voters did nothing. Nothing. As discussed
Election nite, the Yukon Party mirrored its 2002 support
concentrations. The NDP are virtually unchanged
save Old Crow and even their former colleagues in
Mayo-Tatchun & Kluane were returned. Few new
faces. Voters are pleased with the present
Economy. But they know it is tedious. They
know much of it is based on the initiative of "grant
whores." But they have mortgages, kids, truck
loans & want some more toys. There was too much
uncertainty and too much to lose by changing Captains.
Again voters came to the precipice of Change, soberly
paused & reflected ... and said "nope, we ain't goin'
there. Too green. Too much baggage.
Too dangerous just when the things are going good.
And they bestowed a second mandate on the Yukon Party.
And best, the jinx of consistently "voting out govt's"
is over!
A year ago many Yukoners
were bitchin' & sreamin' & handwaving. But given
the opportunity for Change, they almost all paused &
reflected. They did not have confidence in the
alternatives as presented. Real or perceived
matters not. Congratulations to Dennis Fentie and
the Yukon Party on squeaking out a Majority against
great odds. But beware of attrition.
Yesterday was the first day of the next Campaign.
An Election is less than sixty months away. The
Leg' profile can change at any moment. The bitchin'
& screamin' & handwaving will shortly commence again.
Another cycle. But another chance for those in
each Party (or Indept's) to recognize their faults,
rebuild and work on their new presentations.
Shoulda/Coulda/Woulda aside, we all have a clean slate
to play with today. All of us...
Oct 11th (3pm update):
Hey, we called yesterday's order of finish and 12 of 18
Ridings.
BTW, where does one go to
pickup their Red Lantern award?!!
Oct 11th (3am
update):
Ahh, the
pony tail is safe! Last month i bet that i'd
beat the
2002 DataPath record of 8
correct riding calls. Well, this year Donna Larsen
picked 9 ... TrendLines forecast 12. As well, we
called the order of finish!
Oct 11th (4am
update): The Yukon Party has virtually and incredibly
matched their 2002 results. With a 1% gain over
2002, all MLA's are back except Edzerza, Hassard,
Jenkins & Arntzen. Horne replaces Hassard in
Pelly-Nisutlin. Nordick replaces (YP turned Indie)
Jenkins. The YP has almost mirrored its 2002
support concentrations.
The NDP lost Lorraine
Peter but gain Edzerza. The Liberals gain
Inverarity (replacing Duncan) & Elias in Old Crow.
Oct 11th (2pm update):
We've applied the Elections Yukon results to last week's
Oct 7th TrendLines survey. On
several head-to-head polls, we have shown the Yukon
Party with greater support than DataPath. That was
repeated last week. We said the Yukon Party was in
first place in Yukon-wide popular opinion with a 3%
lead. DataPath called the Liberals 3% ahead (see their
graph below). We are pleased to have called the
correct order of finish!
We've applied the
Elections Yukon results to last week's DataPath survey.
The Art Mitchell Leaders Forum bump seems to be
overstated.
Oh and for trivia lovers
and purists, yes our longstanding boast that our July
Update would top DataPath's 2002 record (of only 8
correct calls) came to fruition. Our July Update
correctly called 9 Ridings! Same as her 820 call
Oct 5th survey...
Oct 10th (6pm
update):
This is a
nail-biting time for pollsters. Our survey ended
Saturday and our results are vulnerable to at least two
factors. First is the peel-off of the Undecided.
Where will they go? Even splits or all to one
Candidate. Second, which Candidate in each
Constituency has the better "get-out-the-vote team"?
Scrutineers, drivers and phone volunteers all have their
different tasks on Election Day. And how good was
the team and candidate identification? Ideally one
only want to get out "their own" vote ... not the
competition's. Not at play today is weather.
Certain Parties do better in good and bad weather.
And certain Parties do better in certain seasons ...
when their supporters are not Outside or away working.
We also have some traditions in play. No Indept's
have been elected since 1992 (3). And the
governing Party has been voted out for almost two
decades. Disproportional representation may rear
its ugly head once again. The classic was 2002
with the Liberals attaining second place in the vote
with 29% Yukon-wide support, but only elected a single
MLA (Pat Duncan).
Our new polling sample is
only half the size that we did in our premiere survey in
July/Aug-2005. It was difficult to maintain that
standard and run in the campaign as well (Kluane).
Where we had advance notice of full slates, we used data
from May, June & July. Slightly contaminated by
date, eh. It was a very difficult decision to take
time away from canvassing go with small samplings when
we have our excellent Copperbelt & Federal Riding
records in the vest. But polling has been sixteen
year exercise that is hard to resist when u'r a
political junkie.
My first run at public
office was quite an experience. Quite different
than being a "back room" volunteer or strategist.
The usual dirty tricks flourished. We gave and
received. The practice of Yukon Special Ballots
blindsided us. But i saw much of Kluane, chatted
with many about real issues (not fluff), met some great
characters, was showered with gifts, surprised with
non-Riding donations and well wishes; meandered
around many elk and a few bison in laneways; and
lost 20 pounds!! Evalina and i have some long term
plans. Moving to Kluane on Discovery Day and
running in the Election facilitates some of those goals.
Running as an Independent makes a Statement but paved
the road to defeat. And then there's my predicted
prospect of attaining
only 13 votes back in September.
Splitting the Right was not smart if one is a
rightwinger. Unless it helps to prevent a second
mandate when one is not deserved; and allows one of like
mind to implement some much needed reforms...
Editorials and rants
aside, now let's see how the nite went:
| |
|
Yukon Party |
NDP |
Liberals |
Indep't |
|
Elections Yukon: |
|
10 MLA's - 41%
(1st) |
3 MLA's - 23%
(3rd) |
5 MLA's - 35%
(2nd) |
0 MLA's - 1%
(4th) |
|
TrendLines: |
|
7 MLA's - 35%
(1st) |
6 MLA's - 31%
(3rd) |
5 MLA's - 32%
(2nd) |
0 MLA's - 2%
(4th) |
|
DataPath: |
|
x MLA's - 34%
(2nd) |
x MLA's - 25%
(3rd) |
x MLA's - 37%
(1st) |
x MLA's - 4%
(4th) |
|
. |
|
Correctly called
Ridings: |
|
correct: |
wrong: |
|
TrendLines: 12 correct
6 wrong
0 no
calls
Survey
of 217 Decided
(For the record,
even our July Update correctly called 9 Ridings) |
|
Copperbelt
Lake
Laberge
Mayo
-Tatchun
Mount
Lorne
Pelly-Nisutlin
P/C
Center
P/C
South
Riverdale South
Vuntut
Gwitchin
Watson
Lake
W~h
Centre
W~h West |
Klondike
Kluane
McIntyre-Takhini
P/C
North
Riverdale North
Southern
Lakes |
|
DataPath: 9 correct
3 wrong
6 no
calls
Survey
of 665 Decided |
|
Copperbelt
Kluane
Lake
Laberge
Mayo
-Tatchun
Pelly-Nisutlin
Riverdale South
Southern
Lakes
Watson
Lake
W~h
Centre |
McIntyre-Takhini
Mount
Lorne
Vuntut
Gwitchin
no
forecasts for:
Klondike
P/C
Center
P/C
North
P/C
South
Riverdale North
W~h West |
Oct 10th:
The polling stations are
open. The turnout is good. And the weather is awesome
for voting day. There are about 600 more voters this year
(18,659) than in 2002. Rate dropped to 72% from 80%. See
the comparisons between today's results and the TrendLines/DataPath
projections ... later tonite.
Oct 2nd-8th: Aside
from some very minor tabulations, we are close to our final summary.
TrendLines is projecting a Yukon Party
Minority after 18 of 18 Ridings re-polled in our Sept/Oct Yukon
Political Update.
While the YP may have the most MLA's, it is TrendLines opinion and
recommendation that the Liberals & NDP will strike a two-year formal
Coalition and present this to the Commissioner for consideration for
stable governance.
This is the profile after
polling
18 of 18
Ridings: The 3 "others" reflect Duncan's decision
not to seek re-election in P/C South; Hassard leaving
Pelly-Nisutlin after our July Update and the absence of
an Indep't to represent the phantom in Mak-Tak by
Nomination Day. The see-saw battle in Lake Laberge
continues and Brad Cathers reclaims the lead.
Newcomer Dave Hobbis steals P/C North from Cheeseman.
The phantom Indie in Mak-Tak gives way to Vicki Durrant
(YP) in Oct and Taylor reclaims W~h West. The huge
news is the Lorraine Peter loss to Darius Elias in
Vuntut Gwitchin. Marian Horne will retain
Pelly-Nisutlin for the YP. Lil Grubach-Hambrook
seems poised to take Kluane.
|
TrendLines Projected Win Ridings
|
|
Yukon
Party |
NDP
|
Liberals
|
|
35%
Opinion Support |
31%
Opinion Support |
32%
Opinion Support |
|
7
Ridings |
6
Ridings
|
5 Ridings
|
|
Riverdale South (Sep6) |
Southern
Lakes (Sep5) |
Riverdale South (Sep22) |
|
Lake
Laberge (Sep7) |
Porter Creek North
(Sep19) |
Vuntut Gwitchin
(Oct3) |
|
McIntyre-Takhini (Oct2) |
W~h
Center (Oct4) |
P/C
South (Oct4) |
|
W~h West
(Oct2) |
Mount
Lorne (Oct7) |
Mayo
Tatchun (Oct6) |
|
P/C Center
(Oct7) |
Klondike (Oct7) |
Copperbelt
(Oct7) |
|
Pelly-Nisutlin
(Oct7) |
Kluane (Oct7) |
|
|
Watson Lake
(Oct7) |
|
|
 |
At left are the Popular
Opinion results after polling 18 of 18 Ridings.
We've modified this graph dramatically. Whereas
Oct/2005 to June/2006 illustrate our rolling poll
figures (100-day avg), July/Sept/Oct are now showing
only the respective monthly samplings. The margin
of error is higher (8% vs 5%), but this view better
represents the volatility in play. |
|
. |
|
Poll
Results in 18 of 18 Ridings: |
|
 |
Russ Hobbis &
David Hedmann are introduced to "the question" but the
Liberal Leader has a very safe seat. |
 |
Steve Nordick,
Steve Taylor & Glen Everitt are introduced to "the
question" while Peter Jenkins is withdrawn. A sure
win for the NDP. |
 |
Freddy Hutter
(no relation!) & Lillian Grubach-Hambrook are introduced
to "the question". One is getting
the 13 votes predicted & the other has the slightest
of leads that may win this Riding for the NDP. |
 |
The 3-way see-saw battle
continues... Tim Zeigdel has since Withdrawn. A
tedious YP win. |
 |
Jeannie van
Bibber and Karen Gage are introduced to "the question".
Race getting tighter but we're giving it to Liberals. |
 |
John Edzerza (now as an NDP) & Vicki Durrant (now with
YP) are introduced to "the question". Tight YP
win. |
 |
Colleen Wirth
and Val Bloxall are introduced to "the question".
But Steve Cardiff will retain the Riding. |
 |
Dean Hassard is withdrawn
and re-entered in P/C South. Marian Horne, Hammond
Dick & Gwen Wally are introduced to "the question".
The YP will retain this Riding. |
 |
David Laxton & Kate
White are introduced to "the question". Lang
continues in phoenix fashion and a likely but narrow YP
win. |
 |
Dave Hobbis is introduced
to "the question" and it seems we have a new leader and
an NDP win. |
 |
Dean Hassard, Samson
Hartland & Don Inverarity are introduced to "the
question". Dean Hassard is the current MLA from
Pelly-Nisutlin and attempting a Riding change. But
we're giving this one to the Liberals. |
 |
Jim McCullough & Lesley
Cabott are introduced to "the question". The
Liberals lead is extended in a tight race with the
Speaker. A very tight Liberal win. |
 |
Remarkable comeback for
Glenn Hart. A YP win assured. |
 |
With Liberal weakness, no
"split the left" advantage for Rouble. An NDP win
assured. |
 |
Darius Elias & William Josie are introduced to "the
question". It appears a dramatic changing of the
guard is at hand in Old Crow with an assured Liberal
win. |
 |
Rick Harder, Rachael Lewis
& Dale Worsfold are introduced to "the question".
Yukon Party leader has a very safe seat. |
 |
Jerry Johnson
and Bernie Phillips are introduced and Vicki Durrant has
been withdrawn (& re-entered in Mak-Tak) from "the
question". Those 32 volunteers have put the NDP
over the top. NDP leader has a very safe seat. |
 |
Rhoda Merkel is
introduced to "the question". We bet Mike
really wanted a November Election to make more
inroads. However, time has run out.
A tight race and YP win. |
|
This Sept/Oct Update of our rolling poll survey is based
on responses from 217 Decided voters from May28-Oct7.
The survey has about a 7% Undecided factor with a Margin
of Error of 6¼% for the Yukon-wide Party Popular Opinion
and an avg 28% for the individual Ridings. P/C
North includes calls from May. Lake Laberge incl
calls from June. Riverdale South & Southern Lakes
incl calls from July. There were no calls in
August. All others incl Sept or Oct calls only.
Oct 6th: DataPath has released
its Election Forecast. In 2002, Donna Larsen revealed 15 of 18
Riding leaders.
She only got 8 correct. Today she has revealed
12 leading candidates: 5 YP, 5 Liberals & 2 NDP. She
does not commit to a Liberal or YP win by Majority or Minority.
Her Yukon-wide opinion support figures are 37% Liberals, 34% YP, 25%
NDP & 4% Indep't. We had commented that in her small sample
August poll,
she had missed the fall-from-grace of the NDP.
Her new larger poll now catches that sentiment. But, while
TrendLines shows the Liberals & NDP in a tie at 31%, DataPath is
showing a variance of 6% in each direction. Thus, while
DataPath shows a 3% Liberal lead, we see a 4% YP lead.
Comments on how this affects my pony tail shortly!
DataPath Press Release excerpt -
Based on the population and the
sample size, which determines the
margin of error in each riding, the
7 candidates who are now currently
above the margin of error are:
Arthur Mitchell, Gary McRobb, Ed
Schultz, Eric Fairclough, Patrick
Rouble, Dennis Fentie and Todd Hardy.
Candidates who are ahead, but within
the margin of error are
Brad Cathers, Colleen Wirth, Marian
Horne, Glenn Hart and Lorraine Peter.
Based on this poll,
winning a majority government is not
beyond reach for the Yukon Party,
however,
it is more likely that the Liberals
will be challenging the Yukon Party
for a minority government.
The survey was conducted by DataPath
Systems; an independent Yukon-based
market research company. Telephone
and on-line surveys were conducted
with 821 Yukon residents, 374
Whitehorse residents and 447
non-Whitehorse residents between Oct
1 and Oct 5. The data is weighted to
accurately represent Yukoners based
on the community they live in, their
age and gender. Percentages are
statistically valid to +/- 3.9% |
Oct 5th: I was in my
first all-candidates forum last nite. Jim Bowers
of the YP was a no-show. I have a good chance now
to attain my forecast of 13 votes for
myself in Kluane. |
Oct 2nd:
Remember James Allen? The Champagne Aishihik First Nations
chief that demanded a Casino the first week of the Election
campaign. The same chief that spoke against me on CBC under
the skilful guidance of Peter Carr and Rose Kushniruk. Yet the
same chief who was instrumental in asking the School Council to fire
Evalina. We exposed him and his (their) motives at TrendLines.
And well, he ain't the chief
anymore. He
lost by ten votes tonite in the CAFN Elections. True justice
prevails.
His departure, maybe a setup
in itself, makes Darrel Peters and Bob Lucas the happiest two guys
in the Yukon. Why? 'Cuz they think that after the
Election they're on the gravy train. At least that's what
they've told TrendLines in the past. The beer was flowing at
the High Country Inn. I was with Brad Cathers. And the
boasting commenced.
Peters says he has the Carcross site
chosen and his team in place. They're working with
Carcross/Tagish First Nations. And money is no object.
Lucas says he has the W~h site chosen
and his team in place. They're working with Kwanlin Dun First
Nations. And money is no object.
Both are well known on the poker
circuit. Peters' further boasts that his home is one of the
premiere hosting locales in town ... and renovations will make it
even bigger. Cathers never said a word. Seemed
disgusted. And left. Pissing contests can do that.
There was only One Problem.
Chief James Allen. The guy who wants to build & manage his own
Casino. When Allen made the headlines in September, it is said
that not even sexual conquests could keep Premier Dennis Fentie from
racing to the media microphones to denounce the evils of Casinos (at
least those in Takhini on the western W~h border, eh!). Not
knowing what was going on, the Opposition Leaders chimed in "yeah,
us too, eh!" This was the first of many to come ... all three
of us agree themed Election announcements. But i digress.
Chief Allen's loss clears the way for Patronage galore for Yukon
Party stalwarts. Let's call it CasinoGate for lack of a
moniker.
Darrel Peters is past president of the
Yukon Party. Director Bob Lucas is one of their main bag men,
er ... fundraisers. Last October i accused Fentie of being
beholden to Party markers. Is this one of them? Are the
sudden epiphanies (anti-drugs, anti-Casino, anti-greenhouse gases,
anti-etc) during the Election campaign just more of the sick tactics
that have over time made the electorate so very cynical? Does
Fentie have an Agenda that was blocked by Chief Allen of CAFN & the
fact that Edzerza's August flight across-the-floor left the Yukon
Party short a vote in that long alluded to Fall Sitting? Do we
really want to give Fentie and the cronies a second chance (aka
mandate)? Is this about good governance or is it about control
and helping old friends to the trough. Patronage and
Corruption. Then
Imagine Tomorrow.
Imagine Tomorrow run
by a team with the ethics and morals of street punks.
Last week's gunshots downtown were
turf war related. Drugs move freely in the Yukon, a Territory
run by a convicted (but pardoned) heroin trafficker. Peter
Mansbridge of CBC said tonite that the North's spouse abuse is more
than 50% higher than the national average. He went on to say
that the Yukon's sexual abuse rate is three times the nat'l avg.
And we have a Premier accused of inappropriate sexual misconduct in
the Cabinet workplace according to a MLA. We are going to hell
in a hand basket and this cannot continue. Folks, please
connect the dots by Thanksgiving Day!!
Oct 1st: Between now and the
Election we'll be releasing our September Yukon Political Update as
previewed in the SubscriberVenue starting Sept 5th.
  Sept
30th: The Yukon Party re-unveils its new election logo.
But Dennis Fentie's girls
are gone. Did
some "imagine" too much?
Hmmm. Three
more TrendLiners have verified Gary McRobb's allegations of sexual
misconduct in the Premier's Office. Same two names keep coming
up. We won't print the victim's name.
It appears that the other
women left so as not to be whispered about as being "the one".
We'll
wait for the stud to come forward on his own to "do the right
thing."
Or like 2002, will it be another "i
did not have sexual relations with that woman!" No, wrong guy.
Try again: "i was given a four year sentence for heroin
trafficking; but i was given a pardon". Geez, if he
loses the Election next week, he could be poster boy for those
Pardons-r-Us infomercials on cbc and aptn. Seriously, do u
remember hearing of a Vancouver float plane company relocating to
"Watson Lake?". I hear they have had a celebrity apply for the
general mgr position...
Whether it's disclosure via
a mea culpa or a Union Grievance, this
SignGate story is breaking sooner that hoped, eh. Todd
Hardy may just get Thanksgiving on a silver platter. Stay
tuned...
Sept 29th: Todd Hardy is home!
His turn for CBC-Radio's Lunch Break call-in show on Monday & he
intends to participate in their (to be broadcast) Leaders Forum on
Wednesday.
Every time u see him and
think he coulda used another four weeks to recover ... thank Dennis,
eh.
Sept 28th: Overheated.
Overheated. Overheated. Frankly speaking, Dennis Fentie
has no economic background and as such has shown that he does not
fully comprehend modern Budget vocabulary and structure nor a
Budget's ramification on the Economy.
In taking tons of money from Ottawa,
it was incumbent on the Premier (as Finance Minister) to spend it
wisely and timely. He did neither. The Leg' will deeply
miss the tallies by Klondike MLA Peter Jenkins of millions upon
millions wasted by YTG in the current mandate and brought to light
by the former YP Cabinet Minister. Much hidden in legal and
consultant fees and subcontracting.
In yet to be released figures,
Statistics Canada will shortly reveal that the Yukon economy grew at
7.8% in 2005 and our GDP is now $1.522-Billion. 3%-4% is
considered prudent. And this up from 6% in 2004. By
asking the Fed's for a ton of money and not spreading it wisely, the
Yukon paid a heavy price in terms of shortages of building lots,
YESAB delays, high construction costs on infrastructure projects,
etc etc. In short, we grew too fast. The new money and
prosperity brought an end to the falling population and we have seen
on average, twenty new families come to the Yukon ... mainly
Whitehorse.
At the same time, NIMBY (not in my
back yard) forces were delaying or outright road blocking new
residential development. The net effect was that our
convention of having a two year supply of building lots in each of
our communities quickly evaporated. Home prices took off.
And tomorrow it will be "rents" that follow. Excessive
inflation that is not sustainable. When the cost of living
gets out of whack like this, young families cannot stay. Our
College and University students now Outside may not come home.
They know that Yukon wages have not risen with the cost of living
here.
Read the Fentie Budgets. Don't
listen to his two hour twenty minute speech. Unlike almost
every other modern day jurisdiction, Fentie does not address
traditional economic factors. While he does incorporate a five
year forecast of the numbers, his Budget document is simply the
release of financial statements. He does not address Yukon
Inflation forecasts. He does not address the Yukon
Unemployment Rate. Nor GDP. Nor sector ramifications,
shortages and surpluses. Nor welfare numbers or housing
shortages. Not affordable housing nor social housing.
Plainly speaking, Dennis Fentie is an
economic neophyte driving blind. He is single-handedly
overheating the Economy with no concept of the short, medium or long
term ramifications. And we are left with outrageous real
estate prices and shortages of skilled labour. And when they
say "what goes up must come down" ... they mean RECESSION. The
present Budget team is Dangerous to the average Yukoner. The
Legislature needs a team that understands these factors and includes
an Economic Statement in the Budget. Same as everybody else.
The Yukon should not be run by cowboys...
Hey, today is our first anniversary of
the TrendLines Blog! Thanx for all your emails, calls & wishes
of encouragement when we meet.
 Sept
27th:
Folks, to my chagrin, i owe the Yukon News an apology (gagging
moment). The photo of Fentie (and Todd Hardy) we have been
using was sent in by a TrendLiner ('cuz ours were said to be too
cheerful). At moments of weakness, i fell into the trap of
painting them as monsters 'cuz it suited the blog-of-the-day.
Well, yesterday's FentiePic will soon be off the mastheads of the
three pages with Election/Politics news, voluntariliy.
We thought our receipt (July 24) of
the seemingly doctored FentiePic was an internet distribution by a
prankster. And as stated earlier, The Yukon News is not one of
my favourite mediums because they seem to be
paraphrasing/plagiarising my commentary in their editorials,
articles & captions; so i was reluctant to stop using it w/o credit
just on their say-so. They claimed
it came from their website in June. I didn't even know they
had one at that time. But in searching our own archive these
past few days (due to SignGate), i have traced FentiePic back to a
known TrendLiner. Our most prolific one, actually. Gary
McRobb. Yes, the Dipper turned Liberal MLA.
And apparently, after more than a year
of late nite phone calls, a ton of emails and jumping his battery
... i have become his ex-friend since i filed my Nomination papers.
Unfortunate. And what a difference a contest makes. In
August i was drinking beer in his kitchen. Now in public, he
is holier-than-thou and doesn't know me. I learned these past
18 days that some will do anything to score votes. Hmmm.
Sept 26th:
Remember my Vive la difference
Blog last month?
vs (TYN photo
removed)
Well,
today it's lookin' like Bosom Buddies! Mrs Tie Domi says her
rascal was intimate with Belinda. Yes ... THE Belinda.
The cross-the-floor Liberal MP. And also with the babe from
Relic Hunter. Wow! They're in the middle of a
Separation battle.
So what is the Yukon connection u ask?
Well, the person to ask is Liberal MLA Gary McRobb. Along with
other TrendLiners, he has been helpful in connecting the dots in the
developing SignGate blog ... and he
has named names. And this one goes to the top dog (stud?).
Gary has been a bit of a jerk lately ('cuz we're in a competition),
but to his credit he has never lied to us at TrendLines. But
just in case, we're double and triple checking to avoid more of
those lawyer et al letters that go on our wall of fame (inflame?).
Leanne Domi was scorned and angry.
Good thing it's evening now. If SignGate has legs, can u
imagine the scene if mrs fentie called during CBC's Lunch Break
today to ask the Premier "a question" during his call-in show?
Whoa. He probably would have walked off the cbc set (again).
Seriously, the allegations that one or
more Cabinet Ministers is involved with inappropriate sexual
touching in the workplace (of a subordinate) is a far larger story
than a sex scandal. If it involves or was sanctioned by the
Premier (and several TrendLiners are giving us the same
perpetrator/victim names), it adds another layer of disrepute on the
character of Yukon Party and Yukon Territory leadership. A
fling does not as such affect the goings on of the Yukon Territory
or one's abilities in managing on-the-job. But on top of an
alleged composite of heroin trafficking, smoke buddies, alcohol to
excess, aloofness, control-freak, etc etc; presumed infidelity may
be the straw where Yukoners say to themselves that this is not the
fellow we want at the top or representing us in ottawa or
internationally. One capable of these things is not a role
model for our kids or young adults.
Unfortunately, by our present
electoral system, the only way to rid the region of Fentieism, is to
punish the Yukon Party MLA's that did not do the right thing at
their recent AGM's leadership review. During the 2002 election
campaign, many in the YP
chose to stay quiet about the four year prison sentence to gain
a WIN. The present allegations have been circling since
Christmas it appears. Again, many (but not all) of the YP
Directors and MLA's are silent and "crossing their fingers" hoping
that nothing breaks by Thanksgiving Day. It is the basis of
our snap election. It is why Todd Hardy will miss the two
Leader's debates whilst assured by Fentie at St Paul's Hospital that
inclusion of the former NDP colleague was desired. Another
broken promise. I leave it to TrendLiners to decide whether
this is idle gossip, an affair of no concern ... or time for Change.
My harsh assessment of the Yukon Party
leadership does not imply that Art Mitchell is our man of the hours.
While he is correct in his assertion that "this Election is about
ethics and integrity," the Liberal Party is far from the
answer. They are presently Canada's poster child of
CORRUPTION. And Art Mitchell cannot say that Yukon Liberals
are different after wrapped himself in the Federal Liberal flag for
months after their Defeat in January. He was as anti Stephen
Harper and the newly elected Conservatives as the staunchest
stalwart. He is not believable on the topic of Ethics and
Integrity. Perhaps Todd Hardy is, but the Dippers are is
disarray. Minority Gov't is the best medicine in these
circumstances.
Sept 25th:
MLA Gary McRobb, recently excommunicated from the NDP,
seems to be making a bad situation worse. The Yukon News is
reporting that he is politicizing the Champagne water problem by
playing the blame game. Over the weekend he has attacked both
YTG & INAC (Indian & Northern Affairs Canada)for lax due diligence
which he purports allowed this situation to arise. In
actuality, the issue involves only private wells ... all maintained
by CAFN (Champagne Aishihik First Nations). Initial routine
tests last week revealed low radioactivity levels in the Community
Centre well at Champagne. Later testing found the same
substances in seven of the eleven homes of the hamlet. An
expanded regiment of soil/water tests has revealed that the more
likely cause of recent illness expressed anecdotally in the hamlet
are based on careless dumping by one or more past or present
residents. The new samples include engine coolant, paint
thinner & BHT (preservative) which have seeped into the aquifer
feeding the shallow wells. The dissolved radon gas producing
the alpha and beta radioactivity is normal on Canadian Shield lands
and is usually filterable with conventional water softeners with
residue safely discharged to septic tanks. For updates on the
Champagne water problem, visit my
Election website.
I have an obvious conflict in this
discussion, but having said that, it is clear that soon-to-be former
MLA Gary McRobb is again chasing the wrong rabbit. He is well
suited in his new Liberal duds as he fails to comprehend that the
real issue here is who was/is doing the illegal dumping and have
they all stopped. The testing protocol is the symptom, not the
problem. But that would be pointing fingers and assigning
responsibility, eh.
Sept 24th:
Note another Leaders Forum - hosted by CBC at the High
Country Inn (see Timeline above) on Oct 4th.
 Sept
23nd:
Evalina got
a luv letter from Yukon Education.
Fired for "off
duty conduct." She has been told that living under
the same roof and being of like mind to a Blogger is a
dangerous thing in the Yukon. Let's call it "financial
vigilantism!" And it seems that Denis Gauthier,
Director of Education & Deputy Minister Gordon McDevitt have
been recruited as lieutenants in Dennis Fentie's vendetta
quest. Even with a Pardon, i guess "Once an ex-con ...
always an ex-con." Being his nemesis has sure stirred
alotta muck this past year, eh! Stay tuned... we will
see over the next 17 days that the Premier lives in
interesting times!
A kind soul forwarded what
will likely be the basis for her "wrongful dismissal" case one would
say. plus defamation. plus preventing the earning of
income. etc etc:
Sept 22nd:
Day 14 of the Campaign and the rumoured story (SignGate)
behind the sign is getting clearer. Apparently the ladies we
mentioned
last week are not involved in the
sense most of us assumed. The alleged misconduct is sexual in
nature alright and is centred in the Cabinet office where at least
three young women have departed; two are no longer shown on the
Yukon Party website directory of Directors/Executive. At least
one MLA is naming names and we are led to believe that inappropriate
activity among staff may lead to an "Oct 11th" mea culpa to avert
Union Grievance action and subsequent embarrassing "tell all"
hearings. Keep those cards & letters comin' boys and girls...
This week saw the Liberal Party
touting ethics and accountability. Well that's an oxymoron.
Uh, wasn't it the Liberal Party that crashed & burned on a
non-confidence vote on CORRUPTION?!! Oh please. But this
sign story has legs. If true, it goes to the very core values
of honesty, integrity, trust and character (or lack thereof) of
authority figures at YTG. And all the while, the Premier is
asking voters to believe his "last second" epiphany on drugs and
casinos. Oh please. (gagging episode) Only Todd
Hardy enters this campaign and maintains a level of truth with the
electorate consistently. It is unfortunate he'll miss the
Leader's Forum. He would have shined among the Pinocchios.
Sept 21st:
Note the Leader's Forum (see Timeline above) sponsored by
the Yukon Chamber of Commerce. David Morrison will moderate
with predetermined questions.
Send yours, eh.
Sept 20th Update:
Congrat's - A first time visitor presently at our website
(2:55 to 3:00pm) from the Yukon and using a Northwestel connection
(IP#207.189.229.187) is our
100,000th server hit!!
Please call 867.634.2266 for a free subscription to our September
real time graphs or send an email to us.
Sept 20th:
I started the TrendLines Blog on "Sept 27th 2005."
Since then my life has been pretty well an open book. While it
started as a bunch of us idealists on a quest to purge our Yukon
Party of its Leadership, i've since been able to share my interests
in climate change, energy resources, economics and politics.
I've had hundreds of emails, phone calls and taps on the shoulder
thanking me for my studies and comments and frankly this encourages
me to continue this hobby out-of-control. So popular, that we
had to split the venue ... and initiate theYUKON.tv portal to
service the awesome regional interest in my adopted home North of
60. To celebrate this milestone, we have another. Today
Evalina and i celebrate that some viewer from the 90 Nations that
frequent our realm will give the TrendLines/theYUKON.tv server
its
100,000th HIT.
Yup. Neat, eh!! And we've attained that threshold with
32,777 new visitors.
This includes theYukon.tv spinoff site which commenced in May & its
3,000th new visitor
will pass at about 10am today! Again, i'm humbled. Thanx
muchly!!
Sept 19th Update:
Watson Lake Update -
Dale Worsfold
Declared as Indep't. Lake Laberge Update -
Tim Zeigdel
Withdraws as Indep't (final slate of 58 candidates).
Sept 18th Update:
Pelly-Nisutlin Update -
Gwen Wally
Acclaimed for NDP;
Kluane Update -
Lillian Grubach-Hambrook
Acclaimed for NDP; Watson Lake Update -
Rachael Lewis
Acclaimed for NDP (#58 on slate of 58). The latter two are
this Election's Paper Candidates. Lillian lost in Copperbelt
in 2002. And TrendLiners know that Raphael has too many losses
to list for reasons of space. There is no word of any
Declared, Nominated or Acclaimed candidates that failed to file
their final documentation or any last minute surprises. We
have 16 Incumbents; 16 females; 14 First Nation
Candidates; 6 Cabinet Ministers & 4 Indept's. If just under 2%
of the population is gay or lesbian, there should be at least one in
a crowd of 58 but none Declared.
Sept 17th Update:
Klondike Update -
Glen Everitt
Declared as Indep't (#55 on slate of 58). No comment.
Sept 17th:
Copperbelt Update -
David Hedman
Declared for NDP; P/C Center Update -
Kate White
Declared for NDP (#54 on slate of 57).
I am troubled that Yukoners
are about to engage in Regime Change still without having
seen Art Mitchell in action w/o briefing notes. Almost
all who meet him agree that he's a nice guy. Charming.
Well groomed. Entertaining. Some say he is
honest has integrity. And he's a concensus builder.
So far good, eh. But in 18 months, i've never heard
him give a speech that was not mostly fluff. It would
be nice to know that if we elect him as Premier, likely with
Minority status, that if he gets a microphone stuck in his
face or meets a CEO, he can speak on at least one issue with
some depth. Like the Sue Greetham campaign, Mitchell's
rise to fame has been in a protected shell where he reads
from notes, or talks of topics and headlines only.
One does not come from him
saying, "hey, i learned something from that." His
pleasantries style may have served him well at Re/Max, but
it does nothing to sway his critics (of all persuasions)
that fear that he is an airhead. This week i could not
find a transcript of his much anticipated Chamber of
Commerce speech. This weekend i asked him and his
Party for it. Nothing. Only Subscribers are
aware of my present Riding Projection, but it is no secret
that the Liberals are not in Majority territory. I
maintain that one of the reasons for lack of voter
enthusiasm and the failure for him to attract more star
candidates lies in his failure to shine as a resource
person. This doesn't mean he can't be a good Premier.
He can be cunning and surround himself with excellent people
in his inner circle and Cabinet. He just won't be a
GREAT Premier. From his performance in Question
Period, Committee of the Whole and especially the Budget
deliberations, Mitchell is hardly a heavyweight.
Mitchell's lack of stature
is a good thing. A Minority Gov't will teach the
present players that extend their MLA status to compromise
and drop much of the partisan crap that we witness in the
Leg'. The governing Party will be forced to
accommodate the Opposition. The cockiness must stop.
And i see Art's weakness as best thing for the Yukon at this
juncture. The campaign is young and we have seen
little in the way of the three Party Platforms and election
dynamics. Tomorrow we will know all the Candidates.
Several Ridings can see their sentiment change on that news.
It will be an interesting week.
Sept 16th:
Last week, TrendLines openly questioned "why the snap Election?"
when the Premier had taken the trouble to visit Todd Hardy and his
doctors at St Paul's Hospital in Vancouver and thereby seeking a new
kinder gentler image. What changed in a matter of days?
Certainly not Todd. He's in remission! We were given a
heads-up on "Writ Day plus one"
that the snap Election call had a nasty background. It now
appears that this developing rumour (SignGate)
has its basis in the number of young women that have left YTG
recently and a potential Union Grievance wrt employer misconduct.
If TrendLiners have more to share, let us know...
Klondike Update - -
Steve Taylor
Declared for Liberals (#52 on slate of 57).
Sept 15th Update
BREAKING NEWS:
Klondike -
Peter Jenkins
has decided not to seek re-election. An era ends...
Sept 15th:
On a personal note i can advise TrendLiners that we attained the
full complement (and more) of nominators yesterday and thus i was
the first Kluane candidate to submit full documentation to the
Returning Office today. While there was overwhelming support
to allow me to voice my take on the issues, i do understand
nominations is merely part of the electoral process and may not
reflect voter support of my positions.
And as i have said from the
beginning, running as an Independent is an overwhelming task and i
realize that i could end up with about 13 votes when it's all over.
Only two Indies were
elected in the first Party-system Election in 1978 and since then
only three others were elected (in 1992). On the other hand, i
can also report that i have overcome the second hurdle: "name
recognition!"
In part it is due to CBC again, in
their reporting an update of the June blog that Smoke Buddie's
campaign manager pretended to be incensed about. It appears
that Cabinet Communications are up to their dirty tricks again as
Peter Carr's counterpart for press releases at Champagne Aishihik
First Nations was allegedly his pawn this time. My June Blog
about the Carcross Murder Trial and my trip to Alaska was
manipulated by tricksters to present a heavily edited version that
this time portrays my quotes as if they were directed at Kluane FN's
(not Alaskans and not Carcross). Our server records illustrate
overwhelming circumstantial evidence of simultaneous joint views of
our blog by the Cabinet office and CAFN at certain times surrounding
my Declaration announcement.
There appears to be an orchestrated
effort at work to torpedo my campaign. CAFN's Rose Kushniruk
wall-papered the town with emails with her hateful take on my work.
She chose three lines out of a thousand pages of editorials.
Go to the bottom of this Google page (or the search the YTG
site) to see one of many collaborative efforts that she and Peter
Carr authored together. One would wonder if it was to done to
decimate my Nomination process efforts. But it didn't work.
And i again ponder the phrase that bad news is better than no news.
Am i suggesting that Dennis Fentie and Peter Carr are continuing
their vendetta? Am i suggesting that for the second time this
Summer they are using First Nations as innocent pawns and tools for
their malice? First Nations issues and problems are sensitive
but need addressing.
Apparent interference by the Cabinet
Office is not helpful and only inflames and polarizes the
participants and stakeholders. I am notably outspoken
and my supporters at TrendLines and beyond appreciate that trait.
It is no secret that it has been my mission to undermine the YP
leadership. They dont' like it. But a vast many of YP
members and Directors do and they are ready to rebuild
post-Election. If the rumours of their involvement are wrong,
let them say it. That it's all a coincidence! They
didn't deny it June 'cuz they know what we know about the goings on
and persons involved. Like Dennis oft says "it's a small
place."
Back to Kluane. CBC's Trisha
Estabrooks is visiting the Ridings on a Koffee Klatch tour talking
to community residents about local issues. Kluane was the
first yesterday. It was heated but Trisha, Nancy Thomson and
the Lunch Break editor did a fair job today in their Lunch Break
segment. Whereas the June crucifixion was heavily edited and
painted me as a monster, this segment allowed me to expound on the
background to the blog wherein it was stated that the worst comments
were aimed at native american reserves and that my passionate
musings were unfortunately written upon arrival back from the
Carcross Murder Trial. It was that venue where the jury and
gallery saw the contradictions between the testimony and taped
interviews and the excuses of blaming the horrific event on drugs,
alcohol and molestation and abuse ... all in the while Johns-Boucher
waving the Eagle feather in crazy fashion and obnoxiously/profanely
addressing the judge. I neglected mixing in the usual humour
and tongue-in-cheekness that usually softens my writings.
Lesson learned. I chatted with CBC's Ms Thomson this aft and
thanked them for their balance this time (and lifted the summer long
blockage of CBC visits from our server).
 Crime
& Justice is a major plank in my platform. At village council
this week, it was reported that tourism operators are concerned
about the Holland-America buses that seem to be passing the Junction
by due to the erection of the anti-drug sighs throughout the
community. The signs give the impression of major prob's.
But as the President of the Chamber of Commerce frankly stated to me
yesterday, "if we take care of the drug/crime problem, we don't need
the signs. The signs are just a symptom and this First Nations
initiative is applauded.
My opponents in Kluane
are not McRobb or Bowers.
They are peers and competition for a position that we all quest
after. My opponents are the Casino promoter (CAFN chief), drug
traffickers (past and present), child molesters, wife/child beaters
and those involved in violent crime. They want me "to go away"
cuz they know my reputation in other jurisdictions and they know
that i will be relentless in turning public opinion against their
wrongheaded ventures, shutting them down and keeping them locked up.
While the Federal Gov't is moving to mandatory and longer minimum
sentences, a movement is afoot to soften bail availability and
conditions in the Yukon. I won't have it ... and neither will
most of my supporters who are the good people, wives and kids that
want a safe home. More later...
I have 25 days in which to conduct
damage control and share my message with Kluane voters. It is
a gargantuan task but i relish it 'cuz i am confident that i can
help residents here and across the Yukon go down the right path.
The dark side is very afraid. There are many ambassadors out
there that are not what they seem. Or are being misguided and
manipulated. We have a conspiracy of silence to overcome and i
hope to be the helping hand.
Sept 14th:
Mount Lorne Update -
Val Bloxall
Declared for YP (#51 on slate of 57).
Sept 13th:
Mayo-Tatchun Update -
Karen Gage
Declared for NDP (#50 on slate of 58).
Sept 12th:
P/C South Update -
Don Inverarity
Acclaimed for the Liberals (#49 on slate of 58).
Don is Exec-Director of the Yukon Entrepreneurship Centre
Society and we congratulate Don on his decision and wish him well in
his quest to succeed retiring past-Premier Pat Duncan. With my
respect to his adversaries in Porter Creek, he is very capable and
would be an asset to the Legislature. He is very knowledgeable
in many areas. Caveat: I have worked with Don but he did
not pay me for this blatant commercial. I endorse him as being
a genuine Yukoner who will help put the Territory's interests on the
front burner. TrendLiners are familiar with my admiration of
this gentleman and know that i held him in high regard in a past
blog along with
Ed Schultz.
Mike Lauer, Chuck Hendrie & Dave Sloan
were mentioned as well. Could that mean...? There's
still nine spots open guyz (or Indie status)!
Sept 11th:
Vuntut Gwitchin Update -
William Josie
Declared for YP; W~h Centre Update -
Jerry Johnson
Declares as replacement for YP's
Alexia McKinnon
& Bernie Phillips
has been Acclaimed for the Liberals (#48 on slate of 58).
Sept 10th:
Mount Lorne Update -
Colleen Wirth
Acclaimed for Liberals (#45 on slate of 58).
Sept
9th: The Election Date is set. My prediction
was not wrong. Dennis Fentie's judgement & decision
was wrong, imho. It is only five days after Todd Hardy
comes home. Only nine days before the Municipal
Elections. He said he wanted a Fall Sitting. He
said he'd consider the NDP misfortune. Why did he
bother going to St Paul's Hospital? He stated that he
had unfinished business. He had until Nov 6th.
And the media was praising his compassion. So WHY did
he go early? Something dark is happening that changed
all the Premier's plans and options. The implosion has
begun...
This YP pic with Fentie
surrounded by young women may have alotta irony shortly.
The rumour mill (SignGate) is red hot folks and it ain't
pretty...
Let's compare.
Email us.
Sept 8th: He took the poison pill.
Yukon General Election on Tuesday, Oct 10th ... announced at
the joint Chambers luncheon! It is likely that
Todd Hardy returns home Oct 5th. And i have more news.
With much encouragement from TrendLiners and local residents
and business owners,
i have decided to seek the MLA position in Kluane ... as an
Independent Candidate.
My website is www.Hutter.ca &
i'm getting a press release ready to send out. Back in
a while with new Declarations as i receive them.
ok, here's a couple.
W~h West
Update -
Rhoda Merkel
- Declared for NDP. Klondike Update -
Steve Nordick
- Declared for YP (#44 on slate of 58).
Sept 7th: A few words
about climate change. The Yukon Party is being
challenged for its modest approach and attainable goals.
It is a practical outline frankly mirroring the Federal
Conservative direction. But we are seeing a major
polarization of views with the Liberals, NDP, Conservation
Society & Northern Climate Exchange on the opposing turf.
And what is their plan, u might ask? Simple. In
a word, "Kyoto" ... send a cheque to Russia:
$7-Billion - to buy carbon credits. That's the plan,
folks. Take seven billion dollars out of social
programs and nat'l debt repayment and send it to Russia.
The real sad part is that
most Canadians and Yukoners have not been told the whole
story about the Kyoto Protocol. Canada's emissions are
insignificant in the big picture 'cuz India and China are
not aboard. But, should all the Kyoto members live up
to their emission promises - and that's almost impossible -
then all the disgusting scare stories pumped out each week
by the Northern Climate Exchange (rising ocean levels,
rising temp's, more hurricanes, more earthquakes, etc etc)
are only delayed by seven years. That's right.
2107 all those calamities peak ... instead of 2100AD.
Seven years. Seven billion dollars. Is it worth
it? Of course not. These misguided proponents of
Kyoto don't read the science literature. Or ignore it.
It's sexy to say one supports reducing greenhouse gases.
Quite another to understand it. Thru the UN, the IPCC
scientiss do a major report on "the state of the climate"
every four years or so. Fortunately the next is due
January 2007. It is called "AR4". Hopefully it
will dispel the alarmism spread by gloom merchants like the
Northern Climate Exchange. Knowledge, perspective,
timelines and mitigation for that which is inevitable is the
best strategy in dealing with climate change.
Next time u are talking to
someone from the NCE, Conservation Society, NDP or Liberals
... ask them to relate "their" plan, its cost and timeline
and the beneficial effects to Yukoners or Canadians or
globally that will be derived. This is all about smoke
& mirrors. Get a Reality Check. They have no
plan. And dick all will change. At least the
Yukon Party is admitting it and being honest with y'all.
NDP
proposes to nationalize...
Found in
the NDP draft policy document (section 5):
WHEREAS Canada's primary resource
industries such as forestry, mining, and
fishing are vital to economic
development and job creation, especially
in smaller communities; and
WHEREAS many of these industries
continue to be controlled by small
groupings of powerful shareholders who
seek profits and power over and above
the interests of citizens, workers and
the environment; and
WHEREAS these industries, under private
ownership, threaten smaller communities
with de-investment and capital flight,
THEREFORE
BE IT RESOLVED that a NDP government
socialize all major primary resource
industries in Canada over a
period of several years through the
payment of low-interest, long-term
bonds; and
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that a NDP
government place all new public
enterprises under democratic control by
their workers, instituting direct
election of plant managers and
enterprise directors, with the
right of recall by their electors, and
have significant and meaningful
participation in decision-making by
consumers, environmental groups and
local communities;
OAKVILLE NDP
Not only
does the NDP association of the tiny bedroom
community of Oakville propose nationalizing
our primary resource industry, the
Trinity-Spadina and Durham NDP propose
nationalizing... almost everything else:
WHEREAS large corporations and financial
institutions are undemocratic and
hierarchical, seeking profits and power
over and above the interests of citizens
and the environment; and
WHEREAS social ownership is a necessary
precondition for democratic control of
the economy, full employment and an
equitable distribution of income and
power; and
WHEREAS workers' control would
contribute greatly to economic justice,
greater efficiencies, and most
importantly, improve the quality of life
of working people and our allies,
THEREFORE
BE IT RESOLVED that the NDP is committed
to actively campaign for and implement
social ownership, including but not
limited to the following industries:
banking, communications, energy, health
care, insurance, manufacturing, mass
media, medical drugs, natural resources,
transportation; and
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that these
industries be democratically controlled
and managed by their workers, by
instituting direct election of plant
managers and enterprise directors, with
the right of recall by their electors,
and integrate significant and meaningful
consumer participation in the
decision-making process.
TRINITY-SPADINA NDP
DURHAM NDP
The
Durham NDP also proposes nationalizing the
phone and cable companies!
THEREFORE
BE IT RESOLVED that a NDP government
place the telecommunications industry
(including phone and cable companies)
under social ownership through
the payment to the former owners of
low-interest, long-term bonds over a
period of several years; and
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that the new
publicly owned industries be
democratically controlled by their
workers, instituting direct election of
managers and enterprise directors,
with the right of recall by their
electors, and have significant and
meaningful consumer and community
participation in the decision-making
process.
|
Sept 5th: Hearing that Art Mitchell is about to make
the first major speech of his political career to local business
owners next week (Sept 12), in pre-emptive fashion the Premier has
requested a joint luncheon of the W~h & Yukon Chambers of Commerce
for Friday Sept 8th. For those expecting an Announcement that
differs from TrendLines target, the available Election Days
remaining to Dennis Fentie are Oct 9/16/23/30. Caveat: Oct
9/16/23 are poison pills for the reasons discussed yesterday... but
then, this is the crack strategy team that postponed the Copperbelt
By-Election long enuf to: (1) keep Mitchell from more than a few
token days in the Leg' & (2) piss off almost everyone in the Yukon
with another show of arrogance and political opportunism.
Sept 4th: So much to do and the hourglass is
fleeting. He wants a quickie Sitting to pass some stuff before
"oh oh" happens but not enuf votes. Almost a year ago, we
surmised that unless the Premier & his Yukon Party would take some
good advice and turn around their tarnished image, their upcoming
Lame Duck
status
would find them beholden to supporters and Party Donators if a
second mandate was not at hand. Well. We further
outlined the unsavoury character of some in Fentie's inner circle
and the demands that would surface. All has come to pass.
And now Dennis Fentie is finding himself behind the proverbial rock
and a hard place. He has said repeatedly in the past few weeks
that he and his Party have "unfinished business" that demands the
call of an Autumn Sitting before the Election. But he
mishandled the Edzerza situation this Summer and lost an MLA.
There is much "accommodative" legislation that he'd like to pass for
his friends of the Party. But now with a 9-4-3-2 Leg profile,
one that includes a YP Speaker, he faces a 8 to 9 votes on any
proposed legislation or regulations. Naturally anything "for
the good of the Yukon" will pass. But any motions that are
perceived to be primarily "for the good of the Yukon Party" are
indeed dead in the water...
So why not go early and pass the stuff after the Election? Two
reasons come to mind. The unfortunate NDP leadership
misfortune and the fact that our polls show the YP poised to win
only five Ridings in 2006. Fentie has taken our advice and
cancelled his plans for a September Election. He agrees that
in the Yukon undue aggression is a fault and that to not allow Hardy
a reasonable period of convalescence would have been fatal to the
Yukon Party. Perceived as opportunist, the Party could have
been blown away and come out of a September Election w/o a single
MLA. The electorate can be unforgiving. Just ask Pat
Duncan, Jean Charest, Joy MacPhail and other recent political
survivalists. Most
Lame Duck Govt's
pass alotta ideological stuff in their final days. The Yukon
Party can't 'cuz it's been reduced to Minority status. Yet it
can't wait for the post-election opportunity 'cuz there may be none.
Since its
inauguration in August 2005, the TrendLines Leg' Projection has been
forecasting that the Yukon Party will win only
4 to 6 Ridings.
Dennis Fentie has become the
poster boy for Lame Duck Govt's in Canada. All those promises,
scrip's and favours to honour and no way to make good...
What sucks even worse for Fentie is
that upon being relegated to Opposition status, he loses his free
"get out of jail" card. Sorry about the pun. Yes, as
Premier, Dennis
applied for and was granted
a special diplomatic "green" visa
to travel to the USA about nine months after the 2002 Election.
American border guards don't recognize Canadian pardons for
ex-con's. The "pass" is renewed annually. After the 2006
Election ... guess what?!!
There we have it. Two scenarios.
(1) a quickie Sitting starting Oct 2nd ... but Minority status;
(2) wait 'til after Election ... but not likely in governance any
longer; And a third actually: (3) forgeddabout
everything u've been telling the media all summer wrt one more
Sitting and look like an idiot ... and que sera sera.
Sept 3rd: They say copying
is the sincerest form of flattery. And in that case i should be
complimented to death with all the paraphrasing and outright
plagiarizing of our daily Blog by The Yukon News (TYN) since the
Spring ... especially their editorials. I guess it's hard to
get good help these days. Now the W~h Star has joined in.
CBC & CHON are often at it as well. All w/o credit of the
source - TrendLines.
With that background, it was with some
amusement that last week we fielded a call from TYN accusing us of
using one of their photo's. They say it's the one with Fentie
wearing glasses. This pic was sent to us by a TrendLiner that
found our regular photo's of Fentie & Hardy "too happy". Most
here know that we credit pretty well all photo's and graphics that
are sent in each week. Unfortunately this one had none of the
imbedded tracing code standardly used by media outlets which
identifies the photographer, camera model, date and the location.
Thus, we are reluctant to delete it based solely on a phone call
(and their refusal to identify the photographer). I think most
viewers will agree that the photo quality is so bad, it is likely
the pic was doctored by the sender. And oops ... there goes
the copyright!
Those who know me would say that for
the most part i am rather non-adversarial. This is a silly
issue to draw a line in the sand over, but this is the same TYN that
Front Paged me and misquoted our Blog in October 2005, refused
retractions and clarifications ... and well, the rest is history.
No doubt this is again related to our approaching both the first
year anniversary of our site and the 100,000 server hits threshold.
Blogs originally were the source of objective news. Today they
make the news. Election sites, political junkies, investors
and stakeholders from
seven foreign nations
and across Canada regularly monitor our site currently.
Open Response To TYN:
Please send to us your png/jpg file and the name of the photographer
and we'll compare it to the one that we received. And btw,
please direct Graeme McElheran and Richard Mostyn to commence
crediting TrendLines in their plagiarized/paraphrased articles and
editorials ... or halt the practice.
Sept 2nd: Sorry, but there was no August Yukon
Political Update due to our relocation to the Junction. And it
looked grim for another. But, TrendLiners are the beneficiary
of my prediction three weeks ago that there would no longer be an
Election in September. It allows us to commence today a
September Update to our rolling polls. Again this month, the
Subscribers will have the exclusive viewing of results in Real Time
at
theYUKON.tv
SubscriberVenue. The three Ridings that have
full candidate slates will be first; and
we'll add each Riding that attains that status over the next few
weeks. The TrendLines Leg' Projection will be updated to
reflect lead changes within the 18 Ridings as they are revealed; as
will be Sept's "Premier-in-Waiting." These new graphs et al
will be exclusively publicly released here at
theYUKON.tv
FreeVenue on Writ Day (Oct 6th). A full Media
Release will be made five days prior to Election Day (Nov 6th).
Caveat: an
"October Yukon Political Update" will be pre-empted should i decide
to seek political office myself (in Kluane). Evalina and i
have wrestled with this turn of events (see
Aug5th Blog) over the past weeks and have considered some
alternative measures. We even made an open plea for the
Parties to kick in some $ being as they monopolize the daily server
hits ... but alas they only came up with $130 (we won't turn down
late pledges!) between them. Perhaps it is because we are
presently forecasting the defeat of 8 Incumbents and the Gov't ...
with only 65 days to go! We saw an
8% swing in Bagnell's support in our polling of the Federal
Yukon Riding in January 2006. And a
19% swing
of support in Art Mitchell's Copperbelt ByElection polling. We
would dearly luv to do a mid-campaign poll in October to track how
each of the 57 candidates performs in the heat of battle and under
the momentum of the larger Territorial campaigns.
Sign wars, media profiles,
meet-the-candidate performances and the odd scandal will mar our
September numbers, no doubt. But with DataPath's
disastrous call on
8 of 18
Ridings
(and
2 "too close to call")
in 2002 in the week before, we are certain and confident that even
our "September" calls will redefine Yukoners' expectations of
accuracy. If i don't beat the Donna Larsen record (8
of 18 correct a week before the Election)
and correctly call at least 9 Riding winning Parties in our Sept
Update ... say goodbye to the
pony tail
!!
|
W~h
Star, Oct 29 2002 ... Re: Nov 4th Gen'l
Election
"However, Larsen cautions that these figures are
tempered by the fact that there are still 37
per cent of voters who are undecided. She
said that figure is a combination of all people
surveyed. If the figures were just for this past
weekend, a more up-to-date snapshot, the
undecided would be around 30 per cent, she
added. Larsen noted that much undecided is
unusually high this late in a campaign. She has
spoken with some pollsters from Outside, that
have confirmed it is a high number. The
margin of error for the overall survey is plus
or minus 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20. In
doing the survey, Larsen asked respondents who
they would they vote for. Larsen also gave
a breakdown for each riding. She would not give
a specific percentage for each candidate because
in some cases, the number of decided voters was
very small. The margin of error for the
ridings was 13 per cent. She said 12
ridings appear to have a clear leader, while six
others were too close to call. She deemed any
vote within the margin of error to be too close.
Of all
three leaders, the only one who is not ahead,
according to Larsen's poll, is Premier Pat
Duncan in Porter Creek South. She said
that riding is too close to call with, according
to her figures,
Yukon
Party candidate Lynn Ogden
ahead by about 10 per cent.
The rest of the ridings' leaders appear as
follows:
Copperbelt – too close to call, but she said it
is leaning
Liberal
with the NDP close behind;
Klondike –
Yukon
Party (Peter Jenkins)
ahead but New Democrat Lisa Hutton is within the
margin of error;
Kluane –
NDP
(Gary McRobb);
Lake Laberge –
Yukon
Party (Brad Cathers);
Mayo-Tatchun –
Liberal
(Pat Van Bibber);
McIntrye-Takhini –
too
close to call with a three-way split
that has the Liberals, New Democrats and Yukon
Party within three per cent of each other and
independent Wayne Jim not far behind, within the
margin of error;
Mount Lorne – too close to call, with
Liberal
Cynthia Tucker
slightly ahead of New Democrat Steve Cardiff;
Pelly-Nisutin –
Yukon
Party (Dean Hassard);
Porter Creek Centre –
Liberal
(Scott Kent);
Porter Creek North –
Liberal
Dave Austin
in the lead, with the NDP's Mark Bowers at the
top end of the margin of error;
Riverdale North –
Yukon
Party's Ted Staffen
is leading with both Liberal Dale Eftoda and New
Democrat Jan Slipetz 13 per cent behind;
Riverdale South –
Liberal
(Sue Edelman);
Southern Lakes – too close to call, with the
Yukon
Party's Patrick Rouble
slightly ahead;
Vuntut Gwitchin –
too
close to call;
Watson Lake –
Yukon
Party (Dennis Fentie);
Whitehorse Centre – the
NDP's
Todd Hardy
is leading with both Bernie Phillips and Mike
McLarnon close to being in the margin of error;
Whitehorse West –
Liberal
(Dennis Schneider)." |
Seriously, if there are any
compassionate souls out there in web land that would like to fund
part or all of an October Update (if i'm campaigning), please
contact us. Our monthly surveys cost $1500. Yesterday we
saw the Premier spinning poll results from DataPath to make it look
like he's winning. However, TrendLiners know that he is only
poised to win five Ridings. And so does Dennis Fentie.
Don't let perception become reality. Yukoners have told us
that they want CHANGE.
Sept 1st: At
any time from today Premier Dennis Fentie could be unconventionally
pre-announcing that he will drop the writ on Oct 6th for a Monday
Nov 6th Gen'l Election. This may be preceded by his calling
(on or before Sept 15th) MLA's back for a four-day Autumn Sitting
commencing Oct 2nd for what he alludes to in all recent media
opportunities as "unfinished business". While Mr Fentie often
mentions a Nov 4th "deadline date", TrendLiners will remember from
our more accurate Aug 12th Blog that the
actual ceasing of the present mandate is Nov 11th ... seven days
after the Election Anniversary and after which all MLA's lose their
status and the governance of the Territory reverts to the
Commissioner. The Commissioner must then call an Election in a
timely matter so as a reconvening of the Spring Session can occur by
May 23 2007.
Caveat:
Today we compare Opinion poll data with the DataPath release.
It is an academic exercise. TrendLines' national notoriety is
based on our Federal Riding Projections. Similarly, the REAL
numbers to watch in the Yukon are those in our
Leg' MLA Projection. Jurisdiction-wide opinion polling is
virtually meaningless, as evident by the Liberal's sole Riding win
in 2002 while the third place in total votes NDP secured five
Ridings. Our last 7L-5N-5Y-1I projection does not reconcile
with either Opinion numbers shown below. Except at the Riding
level, it is folly to base decisions on this ancient type of number
crunching.
 |
At left
is our Update of today's DataPath Survey (aug1-15). While it
mirrors TrendLines rebound of the Yukon Party, it departs from our
results i.e. it seems to have completely missed the rise and fall in
the Indep't component that we have been tracking and it fails to
note any major fall from grace of the NDP.
The nearest
comparison of DataPath's numbers to TrendLines'
data is achieved by viewing our own last survey
(july29-31) drilled from our 13-wk running poll
as quoted in the
Aug17th blog below:
"Yukon
Party 35%, Liberals 33%, NDP 23% &
Independents 9%."
This divergence will be exposed by the NDP's
poor third place finish on Election Day... |
Aug 31st: Mac-Tak Update -
Vicki Durrant seems
to have made peace with the YP and has Declared in this Riding
withdrawing her intent as an Indie in W~h/Centre.
Aug 30th: Riverdale North Update -
Lesley Cabott -
Declared for Liberals (#41 on slate of 57).
Aug 28th:
Mayo-Tatchun Update
-
Jeanie van Bibber
Acclaimed for YP (#40 on slate of 57).
Aug 26th:
Mac-Tak Update -
Free Agent and Independent MLA
John Edzerza has
defeated
Rachael Lewis for the
NDP Nomination (net #39 on slate of 57).
Aug 25th:
As expected,
the September Election has
been postponed.
It will be no surprise to TrendLiners that my forecast that Dennis
Fentie would fly to Vancouver today to meet with Todd Hardy has come
to fruition. No doubt they are discussing whether the NDP
Leader's treatment can be integrated with a later General Election.
Expect a joint Announcement shortly...
Aug 24th:
Dave Hobbis
(NDP) has Declared in P/C North (#40 on slate of 57).
Samson Hartland
(NDP) has Declared in P/C South.
Hammond Dick
(Liberal) has Declared in Pelly-Nisutlin. Marian Horne has
defeated James Smarch for the YP Nomination in this Riding.
Aug 22nd:
Rick Harder
(Liberal) has Declared in Watson Lake (#37 on slate of 57).
Aug 18th: Russ
Hobbis has Declared
for the YP in Copperbelt (#36 on slate of 57). Evalina and i
should be back online on Tuesday.
 |
Aug 17th: We're trying
to balance the moving to H-J with uploading the graphs of our July
Yukon Political Update (in reverse alphabetical order). Check
back often over the next 5 days.
As i review the Update
results with some pragmatism, it is likely that Ed Schultz will
topple the phantom Indep't and defeat either Edzerza or Rachael
Lewis. Likely the latter. Subject to any other all-stars
surfacing to change the complexion of Riding races, this would
present us with an 8-Liberal Leg' Minority with the YP & NDP holding
5 MLA's each. At this time, Independent Peter Jenkins is the
lone Incumbent that has failed to confirm intentions. All
prices subj to change w/o notice.
On a personal note, a debt of
gratitude to TrendLiner Matt from Palmerston (Minto Ontario) for
compiling his monthly map graphic for us. Note Mak-Tak is
Indep't.
|
|
 |
July Update: Leg'
Projection (7-5-5-1) reflects this month's two Lead
Changes. The Liberals regained Copperbelt from the
phantom Indep't. Southern Lakes is lost by the YP
to the NDP this month.
Liberal Art Mitchell is
again Premier-in-Waiting. |
|
 |
July Update:
Aside the massive desire for an Indep't faction, note
the utter collapse of Yukon Party support from 2002.
Down 12%. Albeit they be in first place in
sentiment for the first time since September 2005, a
loss of 7 Ridings is indicated (Copperbelt, Klondike &
McIntyre-Takhini gone already). Similarly, the NDP
& Liberals are down 13% & 7% respectively from their
January peak yet both within 3% of their 2002 levels of
support.
BTW, when we
purge the April-June data and view only the
"Riding
weighted"
sampling data from late July, the Results are:
Yukon Party 35%, Liberals 33%, NDP 23% &
Independents 9% with a 9% Margin of Error and 13%
Undecided factor. This compares to 40/29/27/4
respectively in the 2002 Election. The eventual
destination of remaining Independent sentiment will
determine the outcome of this Election. |
|
All 18 July Update Riding
graphs: |
|
 |
After a brief scare by
a phantom Indep't, TrendLines "Premier-in-Waiting" is
back in charge. |
|
 |
Eh, what's this ... a
5-way race ???? |
|
 |
Jim Bowers is introduced
to "the question". Last month, the YP led with a
phantom. Bowers is now enhancing that lead.
I like Gary. It is troubling that i must tell him
that he has set a TrendLines record for the lowest ever
support level (6%) for an Incumbent (formerly held by
Peter Jenkins @ 8%). The good news is that he wins
this month's Red Lantern award.
If he drops out, maybe we
should accelerate our relocation to Haines Jct so i can
run against Jim. eh. That's a phantom biting his
heels. |
|
 |
Is it just me, or does
anyone else notice that each time Fentie does those
awkward public endorsements of Minister Cathers, Brad
tumbles another notch? |
|
 |
Mac-Tak's infatuation with
a phantom Dipper has run its course. It is
likely the same fate will befall the phantom Indie.
For the second month in a row, zero votes for Kenn
Roberts.
Aside from statements made
in the heat of battle, TrendLines is pleased that Ed
Schultz continues this quest. His presence in the
Leg' will raise the bar and he is an ideal role model
for First Nations youth and young adults in our
Territory. |
|
 |
He's a man of few words,
but he like the bunny, he just keeps on ticken'...
whether he's orange, blue or red. I don't
understand it, but i respect and applaud it. |
|
 |
The NDP's interim
Leader doing ok. |
|
 |
Since our poll, Dean
has Declared his intentions to run in P/C South.
Does that mean Elvis is now tied for first? |
|
 |
One of two of our
"Phoenix" Incumbents! Please don't pronounce that
wrong... |
|
 |
Constituents are still
searching for the right fit. Jim has since
Declared. That may renew constituent interest and
commitment. |
|
 |
Lotsa support for our
former Premier. Unfortunately, Pat has since
announced that she will not seek Re-election. Dean
Hassard, MLA for Pelly-Nisutlin has recently Declared
his intention to seek the YP Nomination in this Riding. |
|
 |
A mere 5% separation
awaiting names of the Speaker's opponents... |
|
 |
One of two of our
"Phoenix" Incumbents! Please don't pronounce that
wrong... |
|
 |
Ethel Tizya is introduced
to "the question". But she is visibly not a
credible candidate. Liberal support is going over
to the NDP. Barr of Crag Lake again takes the
Lead. |
|
 |
Safest NDP Riding in
the Territory |
|
 |
Lotsa happy campers
here. |
|
 |
Vicki Durrant & Alexia
McKinnon are introduced to "the question". Vicki
was the YP flag bearer in 2002 and is presently tied
with a phantom Liberal. With the momentum in play,
the NDP Leader is showing vulnerability going into this
Election. |
|
 |
Mike Walton is introduced
to "the question". It appears he will be a
formidable opponent for the Minister of Tourism. |
|
The
July Update of our rolling poll survey is based on
responses from 305 Decided voters from April30-July31
2006. The survey has a 13% Undecided factor with a
Margin of Error of 5¼% for the Yukon-wide Party Popular
Opinion and an avg 22% for the individual Ridings.
April calls have been purged from Copperbelt &
Mayo-Tatchun. * - denotes a Declared but
not-yet-Nominated hopeful testing the waters. |
Aug 17th: Prior to
clicking the <send> button for an email being sent to Todd Hardy
this past week, i was uneasy using the word "fatal" upon re-reading
it. It referenced another issue and no pun was intended.
My fears for his sensitivity were unwarranted. Yesterday he
stated to reporters
“My heart and soul are up
there and I’m dying to come back!”
It's being said that Todd's treatment will last thru most of the
next four weeks and he is quite optimistic about the remission to
date and looks forward to be back for campaigning in October.
Aug 16th: Vive la difference, eh...
vs
(TYN photo removed)
Aug 15th:
In Dean Hassard's absence,
Marian Horne
has Declared for the YP in Pelly-Nisutlin.
Jim Kenyon has
declared in P/C North (#35 on slate of 57). With Duncan's
announced withdrawal, this leaves Peter Jenkins of Klondike as the
only UnDeclared Incumbent.
The remaining of our boxes in storage
arrived from West Vancouver today by Greyhound. We'll be in
sort&pack mode for awhile, get a cube from Norcan and finish off the
relocation to Haines Jct on Discovery Day. Our first post
thereafter will be the July Update graphs with its 2 Riding lead
changes and announcement of the Premier-in-Waiting. With 100
hits a day coming in from the MLA's and their staffers but ony $135
pledged for the August Update, it is unlikely it will happen...
Aug 14th:
Which Dennis will decide if Evalina and i can see
Stephen Harper this week? The one that wants a
second mandate ... or ... the one that has listened
to Peter Carr's crack Communication Team since i
came to the Yukon? If he continues this
pissing contest, i will not get angry... he's gone
in 76 days, eh.
|
Parties Share of Viewership vs Parties Contribution
towards Future Polling |
|
(see Aug 13 Blog backgrounder) |
Yukon Party Gov't |
Combined Opposition |
|
Yukon News |
W~h Star |
CBC North |
CHON |
CKRW |
|
|
Viewings over last 30 days: |
2363 server hits
(plus 273 from Watson Lake) |
952 server hits |
|
225 hits |
82 hits |
327 (June)they were
cut-off |
8 hits |
17 hits |
|
|
Pledges from Party and/or Party Members: |
YP-$65 |
Liberals-$55 & NDP-$10 |
|
fyi |
fyi |
fyi |
fyi |
fyi |
|
Aug 13th:
As y'all know i am in discussions with TrendLiners wrt my becoming a
participant in Territorial politics rather than just throwing
grenades from the cheap seats. A dilemma that presents itself
however is the dedication of time such a decision will require and
the ramifications on our Summer/Autumn polling schedule. We
will be releasing the July Update next week, and, as shown in the
TimeLine above, we had intended to start our August Update later
this month. Another survey was contemplated in the days just
prior to Election Day. While we treasure our subscribers and
other loyal TrendLiners, it is becoming apparent that more and more
hits are coming from the Caucus offices of the Yukon Party, the
Liberal Party & the NDP; yet they carry little of the
financial load.
Methinx we will pause and reflect
before making final decisions, but consider this blog item as an
open invitation to the Caucus reps of the three Parties and/or their
Territorial Associations to propose some contribution towards the
next couple of Updates. Time will be precious to Evalina and i
over these next few months if i jump into the fray. We will
have to make some arrangements to keep the polls going. While
it is unlikely that all three Parties actually want their fates
revealed in this open forum, it is felt this the opportunity should
be offered to concerned Party faithful and insiders before we pull
the plug. If one of the Parties fails to respond in a material
fashion, we'll have a Blog ... but no graphs. Sorry. And
all of this depends of course on whether i decide to put my name
forward as a Candidate.
If there is no consensus
between the stakeholders, we will be back eventually and resume with
Updates of the Federal & Secession polling this Winter. But it
is felt that those that are using the site in overwhelming numbers
should bear more of the burden as opposed to subscribers.
Again, if u can speak to some degree for your Party or want to make
a financial pledge yourself, please give us a call or an
email asap. Aug 28th
will mark the first Anniversary of our first Yukon Poll and Sept
27th will mark our first Blog entry. Our
TrendLines/theYUKON.tv sites are approaching the
100,000 server hits
threshold. It has been an enjoyable exercise and the many
offers of encouragement have been appreciated beyond words...
We now return to regular
broadcasting. The July Yukon Political Update will be released
here at the FreeVenue on Monday, Aug
21st. 18 new Riding Graphs plus Leg' MLA Projection & Party
Popular Opinion.
Aug
12th: The
Election Call. Most politicians in Canada have shown
compassion in the last two years over stricken peers regardless of
Party affiliation. We have seen this demonstrated in the
convention of "pairing". In the coming weeks we will see the
true mettle of the Yukon Party and the Premier. Do they merely
pay homage to this practice or is it genuine? In what could be
gargantuan leap of faith, TrendLines is today amending our long time
Election Day Target on the basis that Fentie will exhibit "a softer
side".
Just prior to Christmas, we set Sept 25th as our Target. Our
previous date was in October, but we found that this conflicted with
the School Elections (Oct 2nd) & the Municipal/LAC Elections
(Oct19th). Assuming the Premier has a compassionate streak and
will allow the NDP reasonable time for either Todd's treatment or a
snap Leadership Convention,
we are setting Nov 6th as
our new Target.
As background, the last date that the
Premier can drop the Writ is Nov 3rd. And this results in a
December 4th Election. This combination of dates has two
advantages. It allows failed hopefuls in the Municipal
Elections a couple of weeks to contemplate entering the MLA race and
it conflicts with the Liberal Federal Leadership Convention.
The Yukon Liberals are presently the YP's arch enemy and with many
(36) of their strongest organizers in Ottawa (Dec 1st & 2nd), it
could just give the YP that needed edge in some tightly contested
Ridings. In one move Dennis can soften his image with his
handling of the NDP Leadership issue and at the same time strike a
decisive organizational nightmare at the Liberals. A move that
likely dashes any hopes of a Liberal Majority. Unfortunately,
it also means the Territory has no Governing Party in place.
Their cheques stop on Nov 11th (4 years and seven days after the
2002 Election) and everyone in the Leg' ceases to be an MLA.
We still have YTG and all YTG employees continue to get their
cheques. But the Commissioner is In Charge. In case of
terrorist activity or a natural disaster,
it would not be prudent for the Premier to destabilize the Yukon
Government regardless
of the unfortunate circumstances this week.
For trivia fans, we actually have more
time than that. Under the Yukon Act, the Leg' must be recalled
by May 23rd 2007 (365 days after last Sitting day). Working
backwards, a new Gov't would have to give 15 days Notice (May 8th)
of that Sitting and could only do that after waiting to be sworn in
about two weeks after the return of the writ (April 23rd) seven days
after an Election. Thus, in extenuating circumstances, a
Spring Election could be called by the Commissioner on March 16th
(writ) for an April 16th Election Day. Considering a Budget
and Cabinet Appointments must be accounted for, these dates are
quite inconceivable. They are drop dead dates only.
Should the Liberals, NDP or Independents have the most MLA's, even
more time would be required for preparation of governance.
Should the a Nov 6th
Election date be desired, the Premier must drop the writ on October
6th. However, in light of the NDP Leadership situation and the
obvious conflict with the School, Municipal & LAC elections in
October, it would be prudent for the Premier to pre-announce the
Election Date to soften the intensity of the Campaign. Nov
6th. This is a good date for all concerns and the Yukon Party
would be lauded. Todd Hardy will know his status and treatment
regime shortly. Upon release of that info, expect the Premier
to assess Todd Hardy's demise and announce that
the Sept 25th Election has
been postponed in
favour of a long election campaign to accommodate his former
colleague. It's
Nov 6th - or - the utter thrashing of the Yukon Party by voters.
You heard it here first, eh.
Aug 11th Update:
A big thank you to the TrendLiners that wrestled a positive
re-Declaration out of
Ed Schultz.
He's back in the race in Mak-Tak after a few days of soul searching.
Jim McCullough
of Riverdale North &
Nina Sutherland
of Lake Laberge have put their names forward for the NDP
Nominations. And Mr Fentie continues to beg for female
candidates each time he hits the air waves this week. Jim
Kenyon & Peter Jenkins remain as the only UnDeclared Incumbents as
Dean Hassard,
Incumbent in Pelly-Nisutlin, has announced that he will run in P/C
South in the absence of Pat Duncan. We now stand at 33
hopefuls of a full slate of 57. See the standings and full
list at our Election Central link above the TimeLine.
Aug 11th:
TrendLines is considering backing off its Aug25th target for the
dropping of the Writ. With Dennis Fentie proposing several
times in the last couple of weeks that he is considering an Autumn
Session and indeed the collaboration of same by John Edzerza in his
admission that part of his sudden departure was his being asked to
contribute to discussions surrounding a Supplemental Fall Budget.
In short, until word comes back on Todd Hardy's treatment regime and
the potential necessity of an NDP Leadership campaign, it would be
extremely distasteful to see the Premier call a snap Election to
capitalize on these events. Dennis Fentie has been perceived
as being quite opportunistic during his career. But to do so
at this juncture would make his intentions clear as day. Would
we blame him? No. But would their be blowback from the
electorate? In this present environment of extreme cynicism
towards political goings on, one has to say the voters would en
masse be unkind to the Yukon Party in that eventuality. The
Yukon, like other jurisdictions, has seen a governing Party reduced
to a single Riding or two by an inflamed electorate. This
Autumn could be a Repeat of that scale of punishment. The
wrath of voters, augmented by a hostile media, could serve an
already perceived "aloof" governing Party its political head on a
platter. Well, actually nine heads...
I don't like backing off my
prediction. I made it in December. It would be a third
feather in TrendLines' cap. Premier Fentie has gone out of his
way on several media fronts getting out the word that we can look
forward to an Autumn Sitting; that he and the Yukon Party have
unfinished business; that they want to go on their record;
that they will take the high road. If he now goes for the
jugular, then Yukoners are seeing the rebirth of that ex-con from
Edmonton that callously took part in a heroin trafficking ring ...
instead of the kindler gentler Yukon Party that all his MLA's talked
about last week that is going to look more closely at social issues
in its second mandate now that the economy is humming. Which
Dennis Fentie will we see in the coming weeks? A long time
ago, the Federal Penitentiary system awarded Dennis a four year
invitation to their facilities. Yukon voters could hand him a
similar four year hiatus (actually five under the Yukon Act) if he
shows poor judgement on this issue. It could be that "straw";
that final "nail".
|
|
Which Dennis will show up to handle
the Todd Hardy misfortune? |
(TYN photo removed) |
Aug 10th:
To clear the air, the NDP has announced this morn that Todd Hardy
has health issues but will not be stepping down as Leader. He
is in Vancouver undergoing tests and treatment advice.
Whenever Evalina and i met with Todd, he was courteous and genuine.
He has passion for those issues that interest him. He is weak
with those that don't mix with NDP ideology. My first invite
to sit on a political Advisory Board of Directors was by the NDP.
Let me tell u, on the Federal, Provincial and Territorial scene
there are many more wacko's in the NDP that are far worse than Todd
in finding a balance between their quest for their social
engineering and the pragmatics of governance and sustainable
economies. Jack Layton has done much to bring the NDP to the
realities of the 21st Century
In attending their AGM (as observers),
it was clear to Evalina and i that Todd is a favourite son.
And Louise and Rachael are favourite daughters. But Todd must
take responsibility for the recent demise. Only a year ago, he
was TrendLines "Premier-in-Waiting. In January 2006 the NDP
had a commanding lead with 37% of
popular opinion and 9 Ridings in our Leg' MLA Projection. The
iminent General Election was his to lose. And he is doing a
superb job as illustrated by the recent fall from grace. Some
of his MLA's, the media and the electorate seem to discount him as
"Premier Material" or ... the fear the Party of socialist leanings
at this particular juncture. Todd and his shadow cabinet have
failed to show a vision of where the NDP would take us should the be
awarded the reins of governance. The Party must surround the
Leader with good and capable people. Like me. And there
are others ... that can present to the electorate an articulate
roadmap of what's acomin' in the next four years should we give them
a mandate. Unfortunately that plan (if there is a plan) is
enshrouded in mystery.
I don't question at all his decision
this Winter to oust McRobb & Fairclough. His hand was forced.
But the reality of what led to that event must be analysed and
changes implemented to learn from that malcontent. Todd came
thru the event relatively unscathed at the Party level.
Unfortunately, there were substantial consequences across the Yukon.
Support left in droves. I am sure everyone hopes for Todd to
do well in his more pressing battle. But if he wants to retain
Leadership, he must have an epiphany of sorts.
Drastic changes are needed in the NDP
offices. New people. New attitudes. Or all will be
lost. We are most certainly headed into Minority Gov't in the
coming weeks (47 days!?). To date, Todd Hardy and the NDP
(like Art Mitchell and the Liberals) have shown by their lack of
presence in the last two Leg' Sessions that they could not organize
a slo-pitch tournament ... let alone run the Territory. That
is the perception. And across the floor, we have the perceived
arrogance of Cabinet and their little dictator ... that have a
public relations team that even al Qaeda would not want. Their
top down politics stinks.
And there we be. Yukoners will
hit the ballot boxes shortly ... and nobody to vote for. They
will be holding their noses no matter what Party gets the "x".
A sad state of affairs. All three Parties are seen to be
struggling to get quality candidates. And that's holding up
the Election. It's one of those chicken or egg thingies.
Who in his/her right mind wants aboard this train? The Yukon
political scene needs fresh air and change. They won't get it
with many of the present players.
TrendLines showed in April's Update
that 53% of Yukoners would rather vote for a good Indep't candidate
than support the traditional Parties. Cynicism and disgust
with the dysfunction at the Leg' reached a Peak at that time.
While it has subsided somewhat with realization that few good men or
women are going to come forward to bear that torch, it is latent.
Our polls show many phantom Indies in first or second place.
Like me, many are overwhelmed with the prospect of such a battle.
While the Yukon has had its share of Indies, there is quite a short
list of those that gained that status by ballot. But the
failure the Party system over the last several mandates may allow a
breakthru in 2006. And if one or more get in, Election2008 may
yield more. But i digress...
Be strong Todd. Understand that
u have many friends. Take some time to reflect. And
please come back stronger than ever. You clearly have much
local core Party support. It is time to grow as Leader or move
over. For the good of the Party. The other Parties
need a worthy adversary to make themselves better.
Aug 8th:
It is with much sadness that Evalina and i received the announcement
that past Premier Pat Duncan
will not be seeking
re-Election. Her stature, poise and contributions in Leg' are
without match; and she has served Yukoners well over many years in
many capacities in the political arena. TrendLines wishes her
well in the next chapter of
her life...
Aug 5th:
Things are happening at a
faster pace on the Nomination front and we are updating the Election
Central page daily to reflect new names. Also, we will be
using the time between now and the August Update to relocate and
consolidate our offices to Haines Junction from Atlin, Tagish &
Judas Creek.
With respect to the me and
political aspirations, i have never run for office myself but there
is pressure on for me to join in as a participant rather than affect
change from my common perch in an advisory Board role or from my
soapbox here at TrendLines as a commentator. I had thought
that my relatively short time in the Territory would discount that
option but i am certainly being encouraged to do so. I
treasure the many comments we receive from TrendLiners during the
year. If anyone wishes to chat about the pro's & con's of this
prospect, please feel free to contact me at 660.5566 or by
email. And much thanx to
those that have already voiced their many opinions and strategies.
It is apparent Yukoners want change ... and i would be honoured to
assist in shaping its implementation.
Aug 3rd:
Further to yesterday's post, the wildest rumour today is that
Edzerza's resignation has foundations in his desire to challenge
Rachael Lewis for the NDP nomination. His crossing the floor
to Indep't status has no effect on our Leg' Projections due to his
never being in contention for that Riding throughout our year of
polling there.
1pm Update:
Confirmed ...Yes, John is running agin Rachael. To be clear,
we have TrendLines habitual Red Lantern winner (lowest of 18
Incumbents) battling the chick who has the worst campaign mgr record
in the Territory plus two failed runs herself ... that's four losses
in six years and i probably missed some. Ironically the best
loser then takes on Ed Schultz, himself no stranger to coming second
... or third. The good news is that somebody is going to end
the jinx streak, eh.
David Laxton has been Acclaimed for
the Liberals in P/C Centre.
Aug 2nd:
Rachael Lewis has Declared
for the NDP in Mac-Tak. At 29 of a potential slate of 58 (54 +
4 Indept's), we are at the half-way mark of candidates' readiness
today.
Rachael is a stalwart for
the NDP. She was campaign mgr for the recent Federal Election
& the Copperbelt By-Election. She ran herself albeit
unsuccessfully in Riverdale North in Y2K & in Southern Lakes in
2002. Unfortunately her record precedes her and this presents
an awesome opportunity for Ed Schultz to make his mark. And he
has Liberal momentum on his side. If u see Ed at Superstore,
Wal-mart, CrappyTire, anywhere ... ask him to run. His
presence will raise the bar at the Leg' and he makes an awesome role
model for the Territory's First Nation youth and young adults.
Aug 1st:
Final Results of the July Update are at the SubscriberVenue.
With Yukoners likely going to the ballot boxes less than seven
weeks, come see the potential winners, losers and who will hold the
reins as Premier.
Darius Elias has declared for the Liberals in Vuntut Gwitchin.
July 29th: Last chance for July additions!
Evalina starts her calls in
an hour and continues 'til Monday nite. If u or someone u know
should be on this month's "question" please call or email us asap,
eh. Our current list is at "Election
Central".
July 28th:
60 DAYS TO GO!
Patrick Rouble Declared today. As did Mike Walton for the
Liberals in W~h West. With a Nomination Mtg for the YP quickly
scheduled there for this coming Tuesday, we can assume Elaine Taylor
has Declared. We are going into August with only 5 of 18
Incumbents undeclared: Kenyon, Hassard & Edzerza still
undeclared for the YP; Duncan undeclared for the Liberals;
and Jenkins undeclared as an Indep't. All the Dippers are
assumed declared. We presently stand with 28 of the full slate
of 59.
July 26th:
Last week our public release of the May/June Political Update showed
Archie Lang leading for the first time in our Porter Creek polls.
He has been Acclaimed in a local Nomination Mtg. Speaker Ted
Staffen, running 2nd in our polls, also Acclaimed.
July 24th:
One of the first tasks i had upon coming North of 60 involved
forensic accounting. And there have been calls for me to
investigate the numbers that have caused passionate discussions wrt
to the Territory's financial standing. It started with the
StatCan report in The Daily that the Yukon had an operating deficit
of $13-Million. It was inflamed when the media outlets in the
Yukon began publishing ambiguous figures arising out of Peter Carr's
Press Release last week on the Territory's Financial Status.
To that end, i went to the top.
I knew what figures to ask for and what documents would have them.
I sent an email to Bruce McLennan with that request and folks ... by
9:25am it was in my Inbox. And to make a short story long,
it's all good news. In fact, excellent news. I will
share my findings and comments a bit later, but with some of the
ugly accusations floating around, i felt it was necessary to quash
this rumour at the bud this morn. StatCan may have some
innovative number crunchers, but suffice to say that i am satisfied
that management of the Yukon's finances are in good hands.
As mentioned, i will expand on this
but for the anxious TrendLiners out there: we finished 2006
with a surplus of $44.8-Million & the forecasts for 2007 and 2008
are $17.4-Million & $12.7-Million respectively. Thanx muchly,
Mr McLennan.
July 23rd:
I am learning to be less harsh on Yukon personalities. When i
came North of 60, it was rather easy to find fault with many
decision making bodies and leadership and i reflected openly in
those early days that the North lacks the critical mass for my
expectations nurtured Outside. It was manifested in our very
first poll in Klondike. If u remember, last July we had that
novel comment: "We're voting for Peter. We know he's an
idiot. But he's the best we got." I don't
necessarily agree with her, but in retrospect, i have come to terms
with the notion that we have to suffice with what resources are
available and that means accepting some foibles. I expected
better.
It does not mean that we should accept
status quo. Nor does it say that we should avoid criticism.
It merely states the obvious, that we should not demand more than
that which is at hand. If we don't have capable human
resources, then we should only demand from those who are available
that what they are capable of ... whilst not being tolerant of the
slothful and procrastinators.
An Election is in the air. 65
days by my count. Our July Update underway can be seen in real
time at the SubscriberVenue. Here at the FreeVenue, it will be
released on Monday Aug 21st ... four days before Premier Fentie's
likely press conference to announce his dropping of the writ for the
Yukon General Election on Friday Aug 25th. A cornucopia of
wannabees will say they can do a better job but will sit on their
hands and won't run. A myriad of hopefuls will come forward.
We will form a Gov't and an Opposition from the latter camp.
It won't be pretty and it surely won't be perfect. But it's
the best we got. With that in mind; and with the plethora of
difficult decisions ahead during this term of office, we need to
elect those that have ambition, self discipline and a willingness to
learn. And the learning curve will be steep. We don't
need experience as an attribute if it comes with the baggage of
complacency, cronyism and ego.
When we look at the three Parties and
the Indept's that are jockeying for support today and beyond, there
are few shining stars. But we do have the opportunity shortly
to create a smorgasbord of personalities that will blend within a
political recipe rather than clash. We have suffered with
dysfunctional actors long enuf. It's time to send in a fresh
team... a pox on all their houses! Our April survey revealed
that 53% of Decided voters would rather have a hard working
Independent than a rep from the traditional Parties. Without
condoning consensus gov't, the message is clear: Yukoner want
and deserve better.
 July
22nd:
CBC's fear of being taken off the air by the Conservative Gov't is
becoming so intense that they seem to be doing everything in their
power to make their adversaries look like they are botching the
Lebanon evacuation. Whilst on site correspondents were
reporting that the first ship was half way to Cyprus, CBC was
displaying their all-nation graphic scoreboard with Canada at zero
compared to other countries on rescue operations of their nationals.
Hmm. Next day ... CBC had no graphic. Today ... no CBC
graphic. Hmmm. They (CBC) keep saying we're the worst of
all nations in the Evacuation Race, but no stats. Hmmm.
TrendLines checked it out this morning: Y'all can see how each
country is doing for its citizens
here &
here. While others are still scrambling with buses and
copters, Canada is confidently moving 2,000/day with its chartered
fleet of six ships. Is anyone else uncomfortable with the way
CBC is allowing its bureaus to freelance their personal agendas
lately? Northbeat, Vancouver & Ottawa are having smell test
issues, eh. Be careful boys and girls or y'all may be joining
Carol Morin in a time-out for "attitude adjustment" and reverse
sensitivity training. It would be in Canadian's best interest
if submissions were made to the CRTC & Combines Investigations
Tribunal to have CTV consider purchasing CBC and leave City-TV &
CHUM in the marketplace. There is no longer a mandate for a
publicly owned broadcaster given the present flavours-of-the-month
environment. Sorry, but i digress...
 In
the meantime we've witnessed a few real gems from some of the
ungrateful Lebanese: "Canada is letting my country
be destroyed" & "Hezbollah will save me ... just leave us
alone" & "why don't the rescue ships have air conditioning?"
Hmm, some more. We took these folks in as refugees the
first time. But some of 'em don't deserve a second crack
of Cndn sympathy and need a means check as to their true
loyalties and allegiance. I'm seeing alotta frustrated
ingrates and whiners over there. For the benefit of the
bleeding hearts out there, Hezbollah has been launching about 30
rocket-powered grenades an hour over northern Israeli
settlements. Israel has in turn made if clear that for
each rocket and death, the favour is returned ten fold.
The Lebanese are slow learners when it comes to controlling
their own destiny.
Is this starting to sound
familiar? Another conspiracy of silence protecting those
evil forces among them ... a là muslim extremists within our
mosques and repeat violent offenders among First Nations.
In southern Lebanon, the civilian casualties are very great 'cuz
the rocket launches are for the most part striking from within
residential neighbourhoods. In Afghanistan, folks move out
when the bad guyz move in. In Lebanon, they are shielded
by sympathizers. There are many dynamics in play in these
types of situations around the world. Sometimes the dark
side moves in and rules by fear and intimidation. But too
often, there is an incestuous relationship (figuratively
speaking) between the criminal element and their neighbours.
Here we can speak out ... like at the Capitol Hotel and there
are few repercussions. In some places, u or your family
can be slain the next day. And the outspoken educated can
be the first to go...
BTW, i applaud the escalation to
vigilante tactics taken this week against drug sponsored
element in W~h. Last Autumn, i mused that
the Inuvik method
was superior to laying low when local police and political
leadership treat that activity with low priority. This is
a small jurisdiction and we all know who is doing what.
Everybody. The snail paced implementation of Todd Hardy's
inspired Safer Communities legislation illustrates that the YP
does not walk the talk. Again, we have to ask what is
inherent within that political Party that prevents them from
sanctions against the drug element?
We're 66 days from a likely
Election and the Party leaders are bankrupt of ideas when it
comes to addressing common crime. There is no discussion.
Zilch. Fentie says "it is a Federal matter" and dismisses
it. Like all other issues, Mitchell is silent 'cuz he
doesn't want to say anything wrong or make mistakes at this
juncture. "The election is his to lose" and all that ...
phenomenon. And then there's Hardy. Poor Todd.
Lots of ideas. Some good ones. But lacking of good
people around him to provide momentum and follow thru. He
is presently more concerned about image and grandstanding than
providing leadership by action.
|
 A
case in point is the newest tribute received this
week for my infamous "wall of fame." Last
month the Johns-Boucher murder trial inspired me to
rant about sanctioned violent crime within the First
Nations' villages. I pulled no punches and i
backed up each point with 2006 released statistics.
It obviously bothers me that FN women and children
and other good people are victimized week after week
in the Yukon w/o reprisal. Instead of safer
communities and victim protection, resources are
directed to the healing and welfare of the
perpetrators.
And leftist elements
within CBC-North condones that abhorrent activity by
attempting to quell discussion by juvenile debating
techniques such as screaming "racism" (for seven
minutes) where none exists. Since our exposé
of Trisha Estabrooks apparent complicity with our
arch rivals within the Yukon Party, TrendLiners have
been guessing at her motives. And while she
seems to be a willing participant within a YP based
attack on TrendLines, many are saying the
foundations of her misguided actions were moreso
based on socialist influence and leanings within her
personal life.
If one likes
conspiracy theories, this drama has it all.
Was Trisha Estabrooks's ultimate objective to have
this backfire on the YP after all was said and done?
To her credit, was TrendLines a mere feint and Ron
Gartshore a mere pawn in her ultimate manoeuvring to
discredit the YP? As alluded, many say she is
a not-so-closeted NDP supporter (Dipper). One
of our TrendLiners that was disgusted with her open
"racist" accusation advised us that her father is an
NDP MLA back East. And CYFN's Andy Carvill is
said to have been openly wanting to represent the
NDP prior to his election as Grand Chief.
It is now being said
that indeed it is CBC-North that has racist
motivations. There is a growing camp in
CBC-North that is steeped in a "hate whitie"
mentality and propaganda campaign. Another
dirty little Yukon secret that nobody talks about...
By stifling
discussion, the polarization is allowed to fester.
And Todd Hardy may have been hijacked by that
element. Or is behind it? That brings me
to my recent luv letter from Todd. Is this a
letter of chastisement based on an assault on his
tender morals. No. Look at the courtesy
copies below his signature: this letter is a
mere vehicle for his grandstanding in front of
CBC-NORTH and CYFN. Nothing more.
Nothing less.
It is again a missed
opportunity for the wannabee Premier. Rather
than take the substance of my content and run with
it as a potential plank in his upcoming Election
platform, he attacks the messenger...
Where have we seen
that before?
And btw, why do those
that are easily offended come to politically
incorrect blogs anyway?? |
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|
 |
July 21st:
I'm speechless. See the grey on the map? For the first
time in our year of polling Yukoners, the TrendLines Update includes
Ridings with "Indept's" leading. 2 of 'em and they're both
phantoms. And u won't believe who one of the Incumbents is
that is poised for defeat! Scroll down to Copperbelt.
And we have
another first. Dennis Fentie and the Yukon Party are poised
for a second mandate after trailing either the NDP or Liberals in
our Leg' MLA Projection since its initiation last Summer: 6-6-4-2
(and convention says tie goes to the governing party). All
that talk about imminent Regime Change? Well, take out the
"imminent"!
Drilling down
thru our data, the rise of an Independent faction has hurt the
Liberals and especially the NDP.
24 of the 59 General Election candidates are Assumed
Declared or testing the waters. This growing slate
has had a dramatic effect on our 18 Riding Projections
and the Leg' Seat Projection:
8 Lead Changes in the Ridings and the Yukon Party tied
for the overall lead.
Scrolling below, we see among other revelations, that a phantom
Yukon Party candidate is poised to win Kluane. A phantom
Indep't is poised to defeat Liberal Leader Art Mitchell;
Another is leading in Mac-Tak. Jon Breen has the slightest of
leads over Brad Cathers and phantom Liberals are poised to snatch
W~h West from Cabinet Minister Elaine Taylor and Riverdale North
from Speaker Ted Staffen. Note that Cabinet Minister Glenn
Hart has taken on phoenix qualities, and Archie too.
The May data also reflects the Liberal recruitment of
Eric Fairclough in Mayo-Tatchun.
On a personal note, a debt of
gratitude to TrendLiner Matt from Palmerston (Minto Ontario) for
catching my arithmetic error while compiling his monthly map graphic
for us. |
 |
|
 |
At left is a representation of present Party Popular Opinion status.
The present spread between the traditional three Parties is 0.4%.
It is noteworthy that thru
our year of polling, except for Peter Jenkins, no Opposition
Incumbent had ever "not" been leading. June calls reveal that
the string has been broken: Arthur Mitchell has lost the Lead
in Copperbelt and Gary McRobb in Kluane. It is evident that
Yukoners are engaged in a "pause and reflect" moment.
|
|
Scroll down for our 18
Riding graphs: |
|
 |
Well, it had to happen
with the momentum that TrendLines has been monitoring
this year. Copperbelt & Mac-Tak have the
distinction of being the first two Ridings poised to be
won by Indep't Candidates. Both are phantoms.
Even i am surprised that it has happened in Copperbelt;
albeit my reservations have been well documented since
the Federal Election. Liberal leader Art Mitchell
seems to be afraid of peaking too early. |
 |
Klondikers want two
Indep't choices at the moment. |
 |
Only a 5% separation! |
 |
We introduce Tim Zeigdel
to "the question". |
 |
Another Indep't Lead.
But it's not Kenn Roberts. We asked. Nobody
liked him. Nobody. And he lost to a phantom.
That's gotta hurt, eh. This was the first time he
was on "the question". |
 |
He flew high in Orange,
then Aqua ... now he's Red; and doing it again.
Eric Fairclough: He da Man. |
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|
 |
Elvis has "entered" the
building |
 |
Is that Archie peaking
over the riff-raff? Yup. |
 |
Ripe for an Indie? |
 |
At TrendLines,
we have been vocal fans of PatD since our arrival in the
Yukon. Very glad the haemorrhaging has ended! |
|
 |
Nice while it lasted? |
 |
Almost a year
ago, he was our reigning Red Lantern MLA. But
touché for Glenn Hart: "Phil Treusch, you should be
scared". The departure of Sue Edelman from our
Question has meant only bad news for the Liberals in
Riv/South thus far. It's not that Glenn is a
shining star; more like Peter Lesniak & Phil
Treusch seem to suck as opponents in the eyes of their
constituents at this juncture. |
 |
A Liberal may be
announcing candidacy in the next few days. Could
be a repeat 4-way race shaping up. This is my
Riding. Should i run myself as Indep't ?
Nope, we're in the process of moving to Kluane. So
... should Gary be afraid? |
 |
No need for an
Election in this Riding. Let's just acclaim
Lorraine, eh! |
 |
The discontent
evident within the Party is non-existent in Premier
Fentie's own Riding |
 |
The discontent
evident within the Party is non-existent in Todd Hardy's
own Riding |
 |
First a phantom Dipper, now a likewise unknown Liberal
challenges Taylor |
|
This May/June Update of
our rolling poll survey is based on responses from 319 Decided
voters from March20-June29. The survey has about a 13%
Undecided factor with a Margin of Error of 5% for the Yukon-wide
Party Popular Opinion and an avg 25% for the individual Ridings.
March calls have been purged from Copperbelt. Mayo-Tatchun
includes June calls only. |
July 20th:
From a climate perspective, the 20th of July is the peak of the normal daily
highs and daily lows for the Yukon Summer season. Weather related
activity may give us some warmer days or even records, but in general the
highs and lows will be dropping 'til the low end of the cycle on January
11th at which time the Winter season commences being warmer with each day
again. FYI. And in 1969 ... Neil Armstrong walked on the Moon.
Trivia from TrendLines.
July 19th:
It is rumoured that Alexia McKinnon will be the YP flag bearer in W~h
Centre, while the 2002 YP Nominee, Vicki Durrant, attempts this time around
as an Independent. Alexia is Special Assistant to Premier Dennis
Fentie in the Cabinet Office and daughter of past Yukon Commissioner, Ken
McKinnon. Vicki is Director of the Blue Feather Youth Centre.
July 18th:
With only 70 days 'til the likely Election Day, none of the three Leaders is
discussing the issues or a vision of the Yukon's future. We are using
this quiet time to wrap up our house-hunting activities in kluane. Our
July Update starts very shortly.
July 13th:
On this, the 75th
day before our target for the Yukon Election, we have developments with
Glenn Hart being Acclaimed in Riverdale South, Jim Bowers winning the YP
Nomination race in Kluane and Brad Cathers Acclaimed in Lake Laberge.
This brings us to 23 of a slate of 59.
 July
7th:
Land Claims & the
setting up Self-Governance is a necessary but overwhelming and expensive
task for taxpayers.
The 1998 Agreement in Principle which led to the 1990 Umbrella Agreement
provided for $232-Million (over 15yrs) among the 14 Yukon bands along with
25,900 sq km land.
Due to
delays, further individual
negotiations and inflation, the
tally to July 2006 for the Claims has risen to $302-Million for our 6,567 FN
residents of the Yukon. Put another way, that's $45,988
directly/indirectly that has been set aside
for the welfare of each man, woman and child via the 11 Settlements thus far.
The first Settlement was with Champagne & Aishihik First Nations in 1995 and
there are three to go...
Funding
of some infrastructure, hydro, welfare and education of FN citizenry has
continued in spite of the Land Claim & Self Gov't obligations. While many
FN bands now collect a myriad of fees for use of their lands, Indian & Northern
Affairs Canada (INAC) has an estimated annual budget of $3-Million in the Yukon
or $5,000 per FN citizen.
As part
of the most recent Land Claim Settlement in Carcross/Tagish FN, residents have
been asked to adopt a variation of the Coastal Tlingit clan system for future
voting. Originally a basis for traditional celebrations in avoidance of
inbreeding, Chief Mark Wedge has turned it into a political Party system at the
local level. The price tag: each clan member was promised a
designated building lot with a $57,000 Credit toward the construction of a
minimum 1050-sqft home. It is unclear whether the construction Credit is
being provided by C/TFN or INAC.
There
are an avg of 469 persons in each of the 14 bands. Administration of the
daily operations and management of the Claim Funds is handled via an Admin
building in each of those communities with a staff of about 27. Their
average salaries of $1.35-Million per year adds much needed commerce in those
villages. Due to near extermination of the caribou herd, Old Crow has a
staff 56 caring for its 300 FN inhabitants; whereas similarly sized Atlin, in
the heart of a tourism mecca, manages their affairs with seven staff.
Hmmm.
With
the staged Claim payments starting in mid 1995, the four original signed bands
will see their cheques stop in mid 2010. Cheques that avg $200,000/month.
Yet the Claim funds have for the most part been poorly invested or squandered in
the creation of false jobs in lieu of welfare. Like any other
jurisdiction, the FN Admin buildings will likely house less than a dozen support
staff when reality checks in. There is very little time to find
sustainable employment for those that will be undeniably laid off in the
foreseeable future.
If not,
the alternative for bands will be to rob capital from their trust accounts
thereby living off the principal for several more years rather than its
interest.
Which begs the
inevitable question. What happens when all the
money is gone? The Federal Gov't, CYFN & YTG have
built a model based on bureaucracy rather than commerce.
Instead of funding the Yukon First Nations as a body or
as three distinct groups, they have chosen to create 14
Administrative Empires in 14 villages. 14 wannabee
CEO's, CFO's, CAO's & 14 chiefs. Each for an avg
of 469 souls. What is that they say, many of
life's problems stem from "having too many chiefs and
not enuf..."
And it
gets worse. In the pre-Umbrella Agreement Days, we had a Minister of
Housing; and Ministers of Tourism, Economic Development, Natural Resources,
Health, etc in the Yukon. But now we are on the road to having 15 of 'em.
Yup, one in each village and its 2000 sq km land area. All making over
fifty grand each. For 469 residents. The Yukon is headed for an
implosion. One FN band at a time. As the Land Claims cheques run out
after the 15-yr transition period, what will be the alternative revenue stream
for each band?
Instead
of $200-k/month, most are on a path that will yield less than $20-k/month.
It is foreseeable that most offices within the Admin Buildings will be
shuttered. They will be havens of deferred maintenance. The
administrators may not be able to pay the utilities.
In less
than four years, FN kids and grandchildren will rightfully be asking "where did
the $302-million go?" 1995-2006: where did the money go? beer
and popcorn? What a Liberal legacy...
If u
are not FN and there's a nice weekend coming up, jump into your vehicle.
Drive to any of the 14 FN communities. Look for traces of the $302-Million
that is over half spent...
If u
are FN yourself, ask to see your band's Financial Statements prior to the next
G.A. And then ask some serious questions when u attend. Please
attend.
If u
are a member of FN leadership, ask the Accounting dept of your band to provide a
five and ten year pro forma. A cash flow projection. It's your
road map to your future. If they can't provide one, call me at TrendLines.
This
segment is not meant to alarm or to criticize. It is a red flag of much
danger ahead that can be averted by reasonable choices and co-operation between
bands in the near future. There is much too much duplication in our
Territory. FN's must consider a sharing of personnel and resources for
future management.
July 6th:
I really like the new skinny blonde chick at CBC-North. Odile Nelson
did a timely feature on the proposed unsightly homes & yards legislation
tonite. Carol the Lardo was conspicuous with her absence. But
how come they didn't show Doris Bill's W~h property in the segment?
Our pic's would have been quite apropos, n'est pas?
|
Sept
6th: My partner says Communism is alive
and well in Canada. Evalina remarked the
other day that the profile of Jack Layton is
uncanny its resemblance to old posters of Lenin.
So it was timely that we received this snippet
of the Resolutions being proposed at the NDP
Federal convention this weekend. Thanx to
Elaine Kennedy for this Stephen Taylor Blog
segment:![[Under Construction]](../../undercon.gif){kind=small}
